Fran’s Top 10 stories for 2008
December 29th, 2007 at 9:23 am by David FarrarFran O’Sullivan lists her top ten stories for 2008. How many will happen? They are:
- Helen Clark is rolled
- NZ explodes in civil disobedience (over Electoral Finance Act)
- Climate change science consensus breaks
- Key and English cut a secret succession deal
- May budget unleashes election bribe season
- Supreme Court tells Solicitor-General to take a running jump
- President Hillary Clinton institutes minimum age of 70 for white house interns
- All the minor parties except Maori Party get thrown out
- Mark Prebble resigns
- Alan Bollard drops interest rates
I’mnot sure more than one or two of these will occur, but will be a fun year if they do!
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December 29th, 2007 at 9:34 am
not sure about the succession deal. That worked so well for Costello and Brown didnt it?
As for the others, I don’t think labour have the cojones to do 1. NZ is too apathetic to do 2. There are enough stupid middle class people to put the greens back, and bollard will have his arm twisted by Cullen (not English/Key) to drop the interest rates just before the election. The others look pretty plausible.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 9:46 am
Clark will not see out the tenure of the next parliament, regardless of whther she is PM or not.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 9:50 am
Nooooo….not the “consensus”.
#3 is denier plot. Has this woman and her so called
“list” been properly vetted by “authorities”?
Does she not know there is a consensus of political journalists who reflect a consensus at the UN and their consensus is that the consensus will remain consentual during 2008?
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 9:50 am
1. Helen Clark is rolled; pretty please make it happen. I will promise to write nice stuff if she is rolled and smoked (metaphorically speaking of course)
2. NZ explodes in civil disobedience (over Electoral Finance Act); yes I did wonder why Helen brought so many LOV troop carriers, but there are no troops to fill them so they could be useful for us. I want to be on the machine gun, thank you (metaphorically speaking of course)
3. Climate change science consensus breaks; Praise the good Lord that Al Gore yellow diarrhoea has splattered over his horrible lying melon. Everybody knows he is a lying niller, what a doh brain.
4. Key and English cut a secret succession deal; with Batman I hope?
5. May budget unleashes election bribe season; Roll up and collect Aunty Helens lolly scramble kids might be able to avoid a bottle of milk?
6. Supreme Court tells Solicitor General to take a running jump: I doubt the sisterhood would clash? What shows if the judicial worm turns just imagine the catfight?
7. President Hillary Clinton institutes minimum age of 70 for White House interns;
Billary does Opera while Bill does Dallas, both available on Fox News videos.
8. The entire minor parties except Maori Party get thrown out; At least some common sense.
9. Mark Prebble resigns; Yahoo
10. Alan Bollard drops interest rates; you mean that caustic Kullen will stop playing puppet master and return to boring students to sleep as a loony history teacher?
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 9:58 am
A few big calls there, and a number of fairly safe one. However, the best mark that Fran can hope for is 9/10.
Number 7 cannot possibly happen. Even if Hillary Clinton is elected President (a doomsday scenario, if ever there was one), she would not be sworn in until 20 January 2009.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 10:01 am
<i>NZ explodes in civil disobedience (over Electoral Finance Act)</i>
Conversations over Christmas outside my normal social sphere (with drunken uncles, taxi-drivers, old friends from out of town ect) have me questioning the conventional media/blogosphere wisdom of the EFB and its impact on Labour in the polls.
The media, bloggers and political activists are outraged about the EFB because they’re members of the ~1% of the population that the legislation will actually effect – but out there in punterland awareness of the legislation seems to hover somewhere between negligent and non-existent.
Ditto the Mallard story – outside of the chattering classes people know Mallard hit someone and think it’s either terrible or funny, depending on your political persuasion. Nobody has heard of Madeline Setchell or Erin Leigh. Nobody cares.
What people do seem to care about – and this is a considerably greater problem for Labour than the EFB, Mallard or anything else – is Australia. Every political conversation I’ve had in the last week has touched on the fact that Australia is clearly doing a LOT better than we are, and their friends and family who’ve moved across the Tasman have become considerably wealthier than those who remain behind.
There have been a clutch of stories about this in the media over the last month or so, and this is also the time of year that you renew ties with friends and family over in the lucky country – my anecdotal, totally unscientific impression is that this is playing a much greater role in the governments unpopularity than the EFB, which I suspect the bulk of the country is either bored by or oblivious to.
[DPF: I partly agree that the Australia thing is the bigger issue and in the long term will be more powerful. But I think you underestimate the affect on the public by having nothing but negative media commentary day after day on the Govt as it goes from scandal to scandal. This is why the polls are now showing 15% to 20% leads. Now it may not last, but the last Nat Govt suffered from numerous similar issues in 98/99 and that is part of why they lost - even though the individual issues of who said what over dinner were minor]
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 10:03 am
Number 1: the Labour mob haven’t got the balls to take her on before the election. Goff ain’t going to take over and get smashed in a National landslide unless he’s a real dumbarse.
I have severe doubts about 4 and 8. Re 8 I think Rodney will hold on to Epsom (cannot see Worth winning). Poodles First are dog tucker already.
Of the others 2 is a near certainty as is 3, 5, 6, 7 & 9!
A prediction of my own: Cullen will unravel bigtime before the election.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 10:10 am
Brave of Fran to put her stake in the ground over the so called consensus.
Vote:Her only error is that the consensus has already unravelled.
What will happen in 2008 is that many journos around the world will now rush to catch up with Fran – so good on her.
December 29th, 2007 at 10:11 am
What? No Royal Commissions of Inquiry Fran?
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 10:13 am
I think you’re right danyl. My own equally scientific method has revealed much the same story. The idea that Australia is doing so much better has really taken hold, and people are wondering why.
very few have heard of the EFB, and most already think mallard is a bully – if they can remember who he is, none could remember leigh or setchell’s names.
interesting isnt it, how very out of touch we are with how real NZ thinks.
Many of the people i talked to are also very grumbly about power price rises and petrol prices. The new ACC levy increases and draconian traffic law changes announced just on christmas eve were noted by a few. Mostly quite cynically – Labour announces *more* new taxes.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 10:50 am
Most people don’t really give a toss about the EFB, but they have noted the Cullen give with one hand (tax cuts) and taketh twice as much away with the other.
IDIOT! Maybe the masses aren’t as silly as they seem sometimes.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 11:50 am
Even if she does win Clinton won’t become President till Jan 09
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
NZ wouldn’t explode in civil disobedience if you put 40,000 volts through it. Look what we’ve suffered already.
Looking at some of the left’s wish lists though, I consider we are now destined to explode in the future over something though.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 1:00 pm
“put 40,000 volts through it.”
A taser a day – keeps police at play .
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 1:03 pm
“Alan Bollard drops interest rates.”
This is likely to be the global theme for the first 6 or 7 months of 2008. The Fed in the US and the ECB will both be dropping rates next year as the sub-prime kerfuffle continues to dry up credit.
Australia may be a bit different with a housing bubble that has yet to burst, but a global recession will practically force them to drop rates too.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
Fran’s predictions are whole lot better and more incisive than the Doms. The most interesting one is the one about Clark. I do not think her position is as secure as we think it is. If Key and English have done a deal I would put one caveat on it. There has to be a big figure alongside English in his Government. Having two powerful people working together sometimes disagreeing but always comitted to working together produces the best Government. So if English takes over then there has to be the probable sucessor after him in a top job like Finance. So the duopoly form of Government continues. And if English wants a clear run ALONE then he is not fit to be leader. That is my biggest criticism of him – he does not seem to like being challenged by anyone.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 2:38 pm
Due to the influence of the Climate Fear Hypers I think the Greens could increase their vote perhaps they might collapse Liabour support, especially among Tertiary Students, maybe even James Asleep might submit to their calumnies.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 3:15 pm
PS what Fran really means about the 70 year old interns is she is predicting Hillary Clinton will win the US Presidency in 2008.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 4:32 pm
Even though I like English and think he’d be better than Key at the technical aspects of the job, I don’t think he’ll ever be accepted in the public’s mind, even if he gets back the leadership role.
This is because I haven’t ever seen him exhibit the steel that NZ’rs require in a leader, and all our successful leaders have it. Clark, Shipley, Bolger, Moore, Lange, Muldoon all had/have it. Palmer, Rowling and English don’t. Jury’s still out on Key.
The observation comes from Bob Chapman who was my old lecturer in Auckland, I’ve watched over the years and it holds water. Regrettable but true.
And the US Pres is going to be McCain with Huckabee as deputy.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 1:58 pm
Some irony, perhaps, in that Fran bases her “climate consensus breaks” prediction on a list of 400 “eminent scientists” that contains Owen McShane and Denis Dutton.
More details here.
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