McCarten on 2008 election
December 30th, 2007 at 11:21 am by David FarrarMatt McCarten makes the point the largest party will not necessarily get to govern (even though this has been the case to date).
Despite the polls, no strategist believes that National can win a majority of votes in its own right at the next election. Third parties always rise at the expense of the big ones during the campaign proper.
While Matt is right to say that few, if any, think National can win a majority of votes, I will take issue with his statement that third parties always rise at the expense of the big ones.
Back in August I explored this commonly held view. The emperical evidence was not that strong:
So the assertion that minor parties pick up support in the campaign period from major parties is far from a rule. It has only conclusively been true once in 2002. It was partly true in 1999 but false in 1996 and 2005.
So remember to challenge such assertions when made.
As I said, I don’t disagree that National gettingover 50% of the votes in the election is unlikely. However also worth remembering that with wasted votes, 47% or more might be enough to give you over 50% of the seats!
As I have consistently said all year, the key party in all of this is the Maori Party. Essentially, they are an electorate party and their nationwide party list polling is irrelevant. They currently hold four seats and, quite likely, will win five if not all seven Maori seats at the next election.
It has been interesting to observe the attitudes of many within National to potential coalition partners. Up until six months ago the strong consensus was that ACT and United Future would be very desirable partners, and then say NZ First and then Maori Party.
There is palpable anger at United Future’s stance over the Electoral Finance Act (despite the last second vote change) and I hear more and more members saying that if National had a choice between doing a deal with the Maori Party or United Future, they should choose the Maori Party.
Of course the result might be that National needs both United Future and the Maori Party, and pragmatism is a strong force. Interestingly Chris Trotter had a column a few days ago on how Hone Harawira’s speech on the Electoral Finance Bill seemed to indicate to him that the chance of Maori Party supporting a 4th term for Labour was fairly remote.
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December 30th, 2007 at 11:26 am
And with overhang, it’s entirely possible that National could get over 50% of the vote, but less than 50% of the seats
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 11:26 am
I note that McCarten completely ignored the greens.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 11:28 am
I have always said that National should cosy up to the Maori Party – Ive said that the Greens should do so as well. It’s just a shame that the numbers on the General Roll who want to vote for the Maori Party are not sufficient enough to have an effect due to their seats being selected on the basis of candidate votes, which ony those on the Maori seats can vote for. I think if Nationals and Labours vote drops a bit with the minor parties increasing, we could have a National Government with a Minister from the Maori Party.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 11:33 am
If they Maori Party are skilful enough to get the Party Vote as well as the Electorate vote in their constituencies surely that will have the effect of reducing the Labour Party Vote significantly.
The question is – how much distrust and dislike of Labour in these seats.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 11:37 am
oops – If the…………
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 11:39 am
pdm – except this bit “In spite of recent polls, the Greens should easily pass the five per cent threshold and are part of Labour’s core vote.”
Back to your point about minor parties picking up during the campaign, I wondered at the time of your original post what store you were putting in “the campaign” – I suspect you based your basis was 90 days before the election (or maybe the poll before the election was called?).
Now that we have an 11 month campaign
will it hold?
Also, perhaps percieved wisdom is not that minor parties do well during campaigns, but that minor parties do poorly in non-election years. And ‘though I don’t know, maybe this is more true?
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 11:40 am
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Maori Party agree to abstain on Confidence and Supply giving National a technical majority. This, combined with Dunne in the speakers chair and one or two ACT seats could give the Nats a not-terribly-comfortable but pretty realistic government based on current trends.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 11:45 am
” and I hear more and more members saying that if National had a choice between doing a deal with the Maori Party or United Future, they should choose the Maori Party.”
They know not what they say.
Vote:Part of NZs malaise, economic and societal, is the minority tail wagging the majority dog. It’s part of the load the 400 per week are seeking to drop.
December 30th, 2007 at 12:49 pm
To my mind a very realistic scenario for the Nats. What I don’t want to see is Key and co having anything to do with Winston’s Poodles First. Though my guess the electorate will finally toss those buggers out for good in 2008.
Winston’s speeches in Parliament have been very poor this year. Mark behaves like a school boy in The House too busy telling tales to the Speaker about National MP’s then smirks with a stupid grin on his face, Brown waffles too much and Woollerton is a total tosser.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 12:51 pm
Dave. “I always said National should cosy up to the Maori Party”
Vote:And why should National do that. Was it not the stated aim of National to do away with the Maori seats.
Surely your not suggesting that National, in a fit of Political about turn now should forget this goal and now “COSY UP” to those pesky maori’s .
December 30th, 2007 at 12:59 pm
http://www.newzblog.wordpess.com
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 1:15 pm
http://www.newzblog.wordpress.com
update on above link
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 1:29 pm
Thanks PP
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 2:00 pm
You’ll have to try harder than that, John Dalley. The Maori Party has far more iin common with National than is does with Labour. Why, even your brightest young star publicly admitted that Maori have for years been duped by Labour.
BTW, I haven’t heard any of your leftie troll mates come out and swear undying loyalty to your Rickety Kate leader. A bit scared they might be left on the outer when she finally gets the boot?
I’ll bet Fran Mould is practicing her screeching interview style right now. Can you hear it? (I bet Clark can.)
‘When are you going to resign, Prime Misister? When are you going to resign?’
Do you and JS and PP have a collective opinion on the rate of opinion polling decline which will result in you leader ‘moving on’? 30%? 28%?
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 2:25 pm
If you build your house with dodgy materials – ie National depending on Dunne and Peters, then the house will topple very quickly. Both of them ae political sluts whos biggest political achievements were to survive for so long.
ACT should be the number 1 preference hands down for any National coalition Government. It is sheer foolishness to think about the others after all these years of them trying to destroy the right in NZ.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 2:56 pm
John Dalley, do you really think National will do away with the Maori seats even if National is not in Coalition with the Maori party or if Pita Sharples is a Minister outside Cabinet? National will be silly to do away with Maori seats even if the Maori party support is based on abstinence of a C&S vote. Suicidal, actually.
National has more in common with the Maori Party than the Greens do with Labour.
Clint. You`re wrong. This time.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 3:24 pm
Obviously we will also need some other seats put aside for our growing population of migrants – just to be consistant with our Maori seats policy.
Actually Dave, I agree that the Maori Party may have a lot in common with National. However it will be a hell of a long time for Maori to realise that the endless cycle of dependency that they have been forced to swallow by Labour successive Governments for decades is a lost cause.
Plus, as a small party they have more than their fair share of loose cannons.
Name one other party who would push and advance National policies other than ACT Dave? Dunne and Winston can’t be trusted, esp if you remember the last time Winston was in Govt with National. I would be very comfortable with a Nat/ACT/Maori coalition plus ACT have already good realtionships with the MP.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
Dunne should be history: National should not spare him. He has not earned a Speakership.
The Maori party have shown they merit being a coalition partner with National who equally have advanced Maori interests for years. I would not have a problem with them having a cabinet post.
If the Weasel can be tied down, assuming has a seat, he has proved he has talent as a Foreign Affairs front, which is largely a cocktail party circuit anyway; otherwise the dustbin.
Hopefully Fitzsimons mob can harpoon themselves in the Southern oceans so we won’t’ have to bother counting any misguided votes for them.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 4:24 pm
You’re right there about Dunne, I am surprised people are entertaining the idea of him doing a deal to get himself the speakers role next time. He has done the right no favours so should get nothing in return but a swift kicking out in 08.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 4:24 pm
Clint. 1. We don’t need seats ” put aside” for people that are not indigenous – ie migrants. Wrong again.
2. A coalition or support party is not about whether a minor party – be it ACT or Maori – will ” push and advance National ( or Labours) policies” Its about working together. The Maori seats could be a same policy deal with National as the cannabis policy was between UF and Labour.
3. ACT should be second preference for a coalition with National purely because the Maori Party will have more political power.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 5:14 pm
Just a little suggestion from a way out there
I see no problem with the Nats and the Maori party in bed together and in fact would not mind Pita Sharples as Min of Maori Affairs INSIDE the tent not as is the case with the poodles.
In addition I see no problem with repealing the seabed and foreshore act and let the iwi fight it in the courts as was their legal right until helenagrd and others shit on them. Subject to access for all of course.
The poodles and Act in fact have shit on the Nats in the past when the Nats gave them free runs. I can live with Act (actually I encourage them) but I would not piss on the poodles if they were on fire.
Even if the Nats get over 50% and can rule along I would still encourage them to talk to Pita and his team. I think they would make a great team and well and stuff liarbour for many years.
The poodles won’t make the numbers so rule them out and the watermelons will be very very lucky to hit 5%. In any case Duuny is struggling tp get 500 paid up members so he may not even be at the start line. Dunny have you paid back what you stole yet?.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 5:42 pm
Yes, Pita Sharples would make a better Minister of Maori Affairs than the current one. Now, off to get the kids some tea – weirdly enough, we`re having Pita Bread tonight.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 5:45 pm
If you had a glass of stout with it you would be close to Pita, Sharples.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 6:25 pm
Adolf. Far more in common with a party that advocated doing away with the maori seats. So what your telling me that Natinal in it’s desperation to get back into power so now not support the devolution of thee Maori seats. That’s called a flip flop is it not.
then again, seeen as the Maori Party is more aligned with National, then they could advocate do9ing away with the Maori seats and standing as a general party. Do you realy think that is going to hpappen?
Dave. Once again, will National step up to the plate and anounce before the elections that they will be putting a program in place to disband the Maori seats before the 2012 elections.
Vote:If the Maori party trusts National, good luck to them, National is desperate for power at all cost and i would suggest that what they say before the elections will not be what they do after them.
December 30th, 2007 at 6:39 pm
JD
A few months ago National and if my memory is correct Chris Finlayson released a statement to the fact that they accept the Maori seats will be around until the treaty settlements are complete because there will be insufficent support due to MMP to accept any other outcome.
Clearly missed by left wing media for their own purpose.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 6:43 pm
John,
Vote:No, because there is no election in 2012. But as it happens, 2012 is the year of the next Maori electoral option. But John, If you cant enrol in the Maori electorate, never fear, you can still cast your party vote at the next election for the Maori party.
December 30th, 2007 at 8:59 pm
“The Maori Party has far more iin common with National than is does with Labour”
The “racist scum” of the Maori Party are now National’s friend Adolf? Even you have sold the store, oh how sad.
(btw David interesting that a man who loves name checks so much failed to mention Ms Coddington mentioning you today, DPF as the New EB’s, who would have thought it!)
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 9:07 pm
Raffles. So thats a yesis it. National have blustered their way out of it again.
So i would expect their election manafesto to read. “When treaty claims have been finalised, National if in government, will dispence with the Maori seats”
I feel a Tui’s billboard coming on.
Dave. Ok 2011 and assuming National is the government, no Maori option will be available in 2012.
Vote:I suggest to youy that National will not have the backbone to state this before the 2008 elections, so why should National be trusted in anything else they spout forth with “what National will do”
December 30th, 2007 at 9:17 pm
John,
I think I`d quit now if I were you. If National is quite happy for the Maori seats to continue and it wants a good working relationship with the Maori party, it follows that it would be happy to continue with the Maori Option.
Vote: