The RWC and the election
My column at the NZ Herald is on how the Rugby World Cup may affect the election. An extract:
Now of course it was not the current Government that bid for the Rugby World Cup. The bid was led by Helen Clark around six years ago, and it was her Government that agreed on the timing with the IRB. It is possible that a motivating factor was the thought that if Labour had won a fourth term, then this could help them win an unprecedented fifth term, making Clark the longest serving Prime Minister.
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Tags: David Farrar on Politics, NZ Herald, Rugby World Cup
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September 9th, 2011 at 12:04 pm
“it was her Government that agreed on the timing with the IRB.”
Dont think so – The NZRU proposed the timing based on the fact that the rugby season finishes in Aug / Sept
September 9th, 2011 at 12:09 pm
Funny proposition. The RWC is held every four years so 2011 was fixed. And the time of year is sort of logical for rugby schedules – when else would they have had it?
September 9th, 2011 at 12:14 pm
Small point, 24Oct. is a public holiday, so the hang over won’t be a problem
September 9th, 2011 at 12:14 pm
My understanding is that a lot of thought went into the timing. One reason the last Govt, and the present one for that matter, wanted the tournament was as a tourism & business promotion opportunity. But there is (I understand) quite a lot of research that shows that big events like this can easily deter more people than they attract, meaning that despite all the investment, you end up with a nett loss of visitors (by way of illustration, I have been told that the total number of overseas visitors expected for the whole tournament is fewer than we get in an average January). Apparently that happened when they held the Olympics in Sydney. So the tournament had to be scheduled to finish before the peak summer tourism season starts, but after winter – not much tourism spin off in putting overseas supporters in uncovered stadiums at night in the middle of winter.
September 9th, 2011 at 12:21 pm
That’s a bit desperate there, DPF
September 9th, 2011 at 12:25 pm
Reading the responses to your article was scary. Some of these people are seriously deluded. There are a number of things about the current National Party I’m not happy with, but after nine years of Clark they are still a breath of fresh air and derserve praise for their general management of the country. Yet some of the responders really do believe that Key is a far-right market fundamentalist and that any day now the “people” will wake up and Labour will win the election. Utterly delusional.
September 9th, 2011 at 12:26 pm
It’s possible that politics had nothing to do with the bid for the RWC, or the precise timing. Just saying…
September 9th, 2011 at 12:53 pm
ok thats enough! Where is the real DPF? What have you done with him?
September 9th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
Yes because Helen Clark was always so closely associated with Rugby in the public’s eye.
(Seriously, WTF???)
September 9th, 2011 at 12:59 pm
Key could have set any election date he wanted. He deliberately set a date one month after the Rugby World Cup just like Shipley did in 1999 and it was also after APEC (September). It’s not a coincidence and you know it DPF (you advised her).
You could have mentioned National’s 1999 defeat after the disasterous 1999 RWC campaign. But no, you think that your readers are stupid.
So a proper analysis would have been that on only three occasions has an election year coincided with a Rugby World Cup year, and on each occasion (1987, 1999, 2011) has the election date been deliberately set shortly after a RWC final. When the All Blacks have won on 20 June 1987, the incumbant (Labour) was returned on 15 August (the stock market crashed on 19 October). In 1999 the All Blacks lost to France on 31 October and the final was held on 6 November between France and Australia (the worst possible outcome.) So there was almost a month between the All Blacks loss to France and the election held on 26 November.
But, then again, we’re all stupid.
September 9th, 2011 at 1:01 pm
“But, then again, we’re all stupid.”
Well its nice of you to admit it. I wasn’t going to say anything….
September 9th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
I assume Helen will be back for th Finals, following which she can guide Labour to a momentus victory 4 weeks later ?
September 9th, 2011 at 1:42 pm
Paulus, stop that! You’ll give me nightmares for weeks!