A minor skite
In 2008 the day before the election I was drinking in Auckland with Matt McCarten and Chris Trotter and half the UNITE union. We had a sweepstake on the election results, and I am pleased to say I won it!
In 2011 the day before the election I was drinking in Wellington with Mark Unsworth and various associates of Saunders Unsworth. Again there was an results sweepstake, and I am pleased to say again I won it. My predictions for seats for the four main parties was:
- National 60 (got 60)
- Labour 35 (got 34)
- Greens 13 (got 13)
- NZ First 7 (got 8 )
I also earlier this year won the hotly contested (100 or so participants) Saunders Unsworth Super 15 rugby sweeps, picking the positions of the teams closest each week. That one I am very proud of, as polls don’t help much when it comes to rugby!
Combine that with a wonderful series of payouts on iPredict based on the election results (I’ll blog in detail once we have final results, but let’s just say I am a very happy chap) and overall a good year. I am thinking of starting up an astrology and fortune telling business on the side 
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November 28th, 2011 at 11:32 am
The question is: did the lefties Trotter and Mcarten pay up their bets?
November 28th, 2011 at 11:36 am
“thinking of starting up an astrology and fortune telling business on the side” – might that not give the wrong message to Curia clients? On the other hand there is probably a niche in the political landscape for a political astrologer. John Key and co would get faster feedback when floating ideas compared with mucking around with polls and focus groups.
November 28th, 2011 at 11:43 am
Manolo – its probably why they did not pay their tax, too in debt to DPF
November 28th, 2011 at 11:44 am
Manolo: I don’t think the UNITE sweep was for money, just honour.
November 28th, 2011 at 11:59 am
David Farrar says:- “I am thinking of starting up an astrology..”
Well done. My gut instinct tells me that stats beat gut instinct 97.3% of the time.
November 28th, 2011 at 12:01 pm
So, do you have a Political Seance degree?
November 28th, 2011 at 12:16 pm
Hey RightNow!
Doh!! LOL
November 28th, 2011 at 12:18 pm
David, Given you are the supreme analyst could you ponder the following. If the Special Votes are distributed using the same percentage vote for the preliminary results on Election Night I calculate as the final result as follows. National 49.69%
Labour 28.10%, Greens 11.00%, NZF 7.04%, Maori Party 1.40%, ACT 1.11%, Mana 1.03%, UF 0.63%. Does this change the final number of list seats fro each party and if so to what extent. Whos in and whose out? And in the unlikely event that National lose Auckland Central, Christchurch Central, Waimakariri, and Waitaekere in the final count and/or a juidicial recount what is the impact? You can probably find a solution relatively quickly.
November 28th, 2011 at 12:34 pm
I was gonna start a tarot card reading business in 1999. Instead I bought a some rental properties. Got to lose some money, should’ve stuck with the cards.
November 28th, 2011 at 12:53 pm
I think its worth noting that the sweep I ran wasn’t for money either.It wasn’t planned that way but none of the 13 participants paid the $5 entry fee so the prize money -$0 was all given to David.
[DPF: Yes Saunders Unsworth sweeps do not contribute to my retirement fund. Even the rugby one (which was money) had a hidden clause that the winner shouts the morning tea!]
November 28th, 2011 at 1:16 pm
This is hilarious! You’ve accidently put a happy face instead of an 8. It makes it look like you’re happy about NZ First’s result. I don’t think so!
November 28th, 2011 at 1:29 pm
David
Winston should be praising you for your analytical nous and accuracy rather than calling you a minor National Party researcher and threatening to sue you!
November 28th, 2011 at 2:46 pm
Weird how we didn’t see these predictions for NZF on kiwiblog in the days leading up to it though, rather only “evidence” that NZF would struggle to get more than 3.2% of the vote.
Politics is sure a funny game, lol.
November 28th, 2011 at 2:49 pm
All right wiseinheimer, can I have next week’s LOTTO numbers please
November 28th, 2011 at 3:33 pm
Yes dpf Sachs strikes again.
November 28th, 2011 at 3:41 pm
You should let Jim Mora (Nat Radio) know – he was droning on earlier that no-one had picked the result.
November 28th, 2011 at 4:09 pm
“I was drinking in Auckland with Matt McCarten and Chris Trotter and half the UNITE union”…and people still ask Whaleoil and I why we call you “pinko”.
November 28th, 2011 at 4:27 pm
Betting a political pollster on likely election outcomes seems a bit ambitious.
November 28th, 2011 at 4:33 pm
From Stuff
Observation #166 3:25pm
Dear Labour.
It is with regret that I advise you of the recent general election results. Although you did well, and as we know New Zealand does not have “winners or losers” I would like to thank you for taking part. Here is a participation ribbon and a McDonalds voucher.
I also wanted to remind you that you have plenty of “friends” to play with in the sandbox still, there are the Greens, who only want to play trains and not make roads, and little Winston. Now, Winston will try and take all your toys, so best you have a “bottle” handy to give him to keep him quiet.
So well done, but now the big boys have to do some work now, so please play nice, and stay put in the sandbox until someone wants to collect you.
Yours sincerely, Beehive Kindegarten
November 28th, 2011 at 6:10 pm
Matt was spending PAYE taxes was he ?
November 29th, 2011 at 3:02 pm
On that subject of Astrology;
I think Winston Peters comments are in line with uranus.