Making your vote count
I’ve done a little table which may help people who want a Key-led Government or a Goff-led Government to decide how to vote, or more specifically how to make sure your vote is not wasted.
There are two ways a vote can be “wasted”. By this I don’t mean it isn’t counted, but that it doesn’t help a party gain extra seats in Parliament.Ineffective might be a better name for it.
The first way is if a party does not make the threshold of 5% or one electorate seat. People may wish to still vote for these parties because of a strong belief in their policies, but other people might want to make sure their vote helps decide who will be Prime Minister – Key or Goff.
The other way a party vote can be ineffective is if you vote for a party that gains no list mps on top of their electorate seats. For example the Maori Party won five electorate seats last election, and their party vote was just 2.4% and they needed 4.6% of the vote to gain a list MP on top of their electorate MPs. So all those party votes didn’t help the Maori Party gain extra MPs.
| Party | Vote needed for a party vote to not be “wasted” | Likely vote in Parliament |
| National | 33% | To make John Key PM |
| Labour | 18% | To make Phil Goff PM |
| Greens | 5% | To make Phil Goff PM |
| ACT | 1.2% if Banks wins Epsom, otherwise 5% | To make John Key PM |
| United Future | 1.2% if Dunne wins Ohariu, otherwise 5% | To make John Key PM |
| Maori Party | 3.6% (assumes they hold all 4 seats) | Could vote either way |
| Mana Party | 1.2% if Harawira wins Te Tai Tokerau | To make Phil Goff PM |
| NZ First | 5% | To make Phil Goff PM or force new election |
| Conservative | 5% | Could vote either way |
So what does this mean. Here’s what it means if you want John Key to remain Prime Minister:
- Only a vote for National is guaranteed to help Key remain Prime Minister
- A vote for United Future or ACT will only help Key remain PM if they win an electorate seat and their party vote is at least 1.2%.
- A vote for any other party is unlikely to help Key remain Prime Minister
If you want Phil Goff to become Prime Minister:
- A vote for Labour is guaranteed to help Goff become Prime Minister
- A vote for the Greens is exceptionally likely to help Goff become Prime Minister
- A vote for the Mana Party helps Phil Goff become PM if Harawira retains Te Tai Tokerau and they get at least 1.2% party vote
- A vote for NZ First helps Phil Goff become PM, or will lead to a new election if they refuse confidence and supply to both parties
If you want your party to decide after the election between Key and Goff, there is not much to choose from
- A vote for the Maori Party will only help them gain MPs if they exceed 3.6%
- A vote for the Conservative Party will only help them gain MPs if they exceed 5.0%
Now this post is not telling people how to vote. It is informing people how to make sure your vote is most effective in determining the Prime Minister and Government, if that is what matters to you. It doesn’t for some people, but it does for others.
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November 22nd, 2011 at 9:46 am
A vote for NZ First helps Phil Goff become PM
Only if Peters goes back on his word (as if that would ever happen) and Labour gives him baubles.
November 22nd, 2011 at 9:54 am
I think Lindsay Mitchell is right. The good people of Epsom need to tell us what they are going to do on Saturday. Last election I gave my electorate vote to Craig Foss and my party vote to ACT and I’m glad I did. This time? I’m not so sure about the party vote because i do not want to waste it.
November 22nd, 2011 at 10:21 am
I note this interesting tidbit from the Herald:
So Craig might back a Labour Government???
November 22nd, 2011 at 10:26 am
How great MMP is.
The Nats. now need MMP and Party vote Act to survive.
Never have the Nats had a majority vote and without ACT they won’t survive.
They had better get their voters to party vote ACT a lot more.
November 22nd, 2011 at 10:41 am
I don’t understand how a vote for Mana helps Phil Goff when Goff has said he won’t work with Hone
[DPF: Because Mana will still vote for a Labour-led Government over a National-led one, even without an agreement]
November 22nd, 2011 at 10:43 am
That is a stupid move from Craig, the idea a truly Conservative party could work with National as socialist as they are at the moment let alone the Labour party is a joke.
Bye bye my vote, I smelt a rat when they opposed asset sales.
November 22nd, 2011 at 10:59 am
A vote of ~0.4% for ACT, UF or Mana might not be wasted if your desire is to ensure there are as few MPs as possible. Any less for these parties (assuming electorate wins) will cause an overhang.
November 22nd, 2011 at 11:01 am
Here is some more info in order to make up your mind as to who to vote for: http://aotearoaawiderperspective.wordpress.com/2011/11/22/six-degrees-of-separation-or-how-close-is-john-key-to-the-key-players-in-the-global-banker-take-over/
November 22nd, 2011 at 11:05 am
You can be sure Goff will embrace the venal Peters or the thug Harawira if that gives him access to power.
100% guaranteed.
What happens next is entirely a different matter: chaos, uncertainty and political calamity.
November 22nd, 2011 at 11:06 am
Hasn’t said he won’t work with Sykes though, has he?
November 22nd, 2011 at 11:07 am
“Here is some more propaganda… ”
FIFY.
November 22nd, 2011 at 11:18 am
Everyone expects there will be a National led government.
Will it be a weak government that needs Don Brash?
Will it be a strong government that does not need Don Brash?
Party Vote National if you want to avoid Don Brash having a major voice in government.
November 22nd, 2011 at 11:22 am
But I do want Brash to have a major voice in power.
After all, he was your former National Party leader, wasn’t he?
November 22nd, 2011 at 11:28 am
I would like to add a party vote for United Future is a wasted vote. There average poll on KB sidebar is 1%.
A vote for ACT may be wasted if Banks does not win Epsom in which case National will be really struggling in 2014. However, a good reason to vote ACT is that if ACT gets 3 or 4 MPs instead of 2 it will make a big difference in ACT rebuilding for the 2014 election when National will need a reliable coalition partner.
November 22nd, 2011 at 11:29 am
A vote for NZ First is therefore a complete waste is it not ?
November 22nd, 2011 at 11:41 am
polemic,
not necessarily. In 2008, if only one in thirty Labour voters had switched and voted NZF, we would likely have ended up with a five headed monster coalition.
November 22nd, 2011 at 11:54 am
I don’t think it’s possible to judge what might be a wasted vote. Late decisions by undecided voters can easily add a percent or two to small party support which can make a big difference.
If NZF are polling around 3% I wouldn’t count them out, and other parties around 1% could easily swing to several MPs.
uThis election I think there is a sizable pool of undecided voters wondering who the heck to vote for. It’s a last minute lottery for National (50% or not), NZF, Act, UnitedFuture and Mana.
November 22nd, 2011 at 12:02 pm
I think you are wrong on the Maori party – they will support a Labour led government if given the chance, I would bundle them in the same category as the Greens. Would prefer a Labour led Govt but are able to work with National if they form the government. The Conservatives are the opposite, they would prefer National but could work with Labour in the unlikely scenario that the Nats can’t get the numbers even with their support.
The Greens are unlikely to support or join a National government – it would rip the party in two and see their support collapse like the Liberal Democrats in the UK Tory-Lib coalition. Thankfully they won’t need to, John Key only needs them to abstain on confidence and supply (and potentially some legislation by agreement) to deliver him an effective majority with the 47-48% of the vote that the Nats have already.
November 22nd, 2011 at 12:41 pm
smttc, you can be assured that the good people of Epsom will vote Banks in, the media polls have been designed not to capture the true Epsom voter, so as not to give a proper representation. Remember that the media don’t want a centre right government and the easiest way they see of ensuring this is to denigrate ACT and Banks.
Party vote ACT, electorate vote Nat’s, and don’t forget to give MMP the ass in the process.
November 22nd, 2011 at 12:51 pm
But Pete George,
If NZFirst are polling at 3% you have promptly wasted your vote if you vote for them.
They (NZFirst) are not clearly above 5% like the Greens are,
Last election it was clear that a vote for NZ First is a vote for Labour as they were polling higher and Labour hadnt ruled them out but not so this election.
You would be better to decide now who you want in govt Phil Goff or John Key.
Put simply a vote for NZ First is a waste!
– you would be just as useful voting for the McGillicudy Serious Party!
November 22nd, 2011 at 1:00 pm
Winston’s doing very well in the Curia polls by the looks of the threads that have started up the last few days.
I don’t see why Peter Dunne can’t be a “could go either way”-cup of tea with Brash anyone?
November 22nd, 2011 at 1:16 pm
i want Dunne to get in but get less than .4% of the vote. that way he is an overhang and adds one more the ‘right’ bloc in votes.
If he gets .4% up to 1.1% its wasted votes from my perspective as he has just taken a seat off a national candidate who is a lot less likely to be a social conservative.
its fun being in ohariu, i get to be all very tactical
still voting to give MMP the ass of course.
November 22nd, 2011 at 1:21 pm
“Party Vote National if you want to avoid Don Brash having a major voice in government.”
I just imagined I was a time traveller from 2005 who read that and got very confused.
November 22nd, 2011 at 1:33 pm
The Conservative Party have made a great selection in Tauranga – Failed councillor, ex United Future, ex Kiwi Party, ex Family Party and ex NZ Pacific Party – Larry Baldock – where next ?
November 22nd, 2011 at 1:36 pm
Ah yes but is he more trust worthy than Winston Peters?
November 22nd, 2011 at 2:42 pm
If you’re a Labour or Green supporter and you believe NZF is close to 5% then shouldn’t you vote NZF?
For example, if 0.4 % moved from Labour to NZF taking Labour from 27.7 to 27.3 and NZF from 4.7 to 5.1 then Labour would lose 1 seat but NZF would gain 7 seats – a net gain of 6 seats for an anti-asset sales coalition. This would be enough to give the Maori Party the balance of power.
On the other hand, if NZF doesn’t reach 5% then Labour has no chance.
Is my maths correct here?
November 22nd, 2011 at 2:50 pm
Wait. It could’ve been far worse: they could have selected the chameleonic Peter Dunne.
November 22nd, 2011 at 4:35 pm
@ mattyroo at 12:41 pm
Done, done and done (from Dubai, special vote!)
November 22nd, 2011 at 4:58 pm
Anyone else been to that OnTheFence.co.nz website? Seems to be giving an interesting bias – this from Twitter:
- John: Did that stupid on the fence thing. United Future 88%? WHAT AND MANA?. GET OUT.
- Charlotte Yee: LOL just did onthefence.co.nz I think it’s rigged my “top 3 parties” are labour, united future and mana… #really?
- Beth: I did that dumb on the fence sheep game and I got 19% United Future as my top match.
- Naly_D: according to http://onthefence.co.nz my best-suited political party is United Future (20%). Because, y’know, I’m 50.
- l•x•ndr•: @lethifolds I’ll be surprised if you don’t get told to vote for United Future lolol prove me wrong
- NICOLE C: @Naly_D I got 50% United Future …. Could it be bias ahaha
- Michael Parry: Has anyone got a result other than United Future on onthefence.co.nz ????
- Moata Tamaira @Michael_J_Parry @librarykris I got United Future too…which I found a bit odd.
- Lisa Rapley: @Naly_D I got united future too, then Labour then Mana. I just don’t even…
- Katherine Chisholm: Just played http://onthefence.co.nz. Where did United Future come from??
- Frazer Skinner: @Naly_D Who published the site? UF 97%, Labour 55%, Mana 39% Um.. no thanks
Does everyone secretly love United Future or is there something else in play here? Can Pete George enlighten us as to whether or not this site is in fact run by his party?
November 22nd, 2011 at 4:59 pm
Also, anyone else hear about the DoC trucks driving round with pro-hunting pro-UF bumper stickers?
Maybe United is tired of playing it sensible…
November 22nd, 2011 at 5:29 pm
A vote for ACT may be wasted if Banks does not win Epsom in which case National will be really struggling in 2014. However, a good reason to vote ACT is that if ACT gets 3 or 4 MPs instead of 2 it will make a big difference in ACT rebuilding for the 2014 election when National will need a reliable coalition partner
The Nats. will need that partner come Saturday.
The Nats. have bever since their inception captured sifficent votes to be in Govt. with a majority of votes cast. Never in theior history. They were able to win sufficient seats under fpp when the farming vote was stronger than the town vote. That all changed in the eighties though.
If you want a National lead Govt. then you had better party vote ACT because if you don’t then the centre right and right will not form a Govt. The nats. cannot muster the votes alone and apart from Dunne who is most probably retiring they have no other real friends other than Act.
Don’t come crying Sunday if you cock it up. I don’t want the fucking Greens, Maori and Labour messing with nothin.
November 22nd, 2011 at 5:45 pm
If we do not have MMP then ACT, nor any other party to the right of National, will be able to make any impact.
I’m no fan of MMP, or for that matter of majoritarian democracy as a whole, but surely if you want to influence National from the right, then MMP is the only way to do that.
November 22nd, 2011 at 5:50 pm
Banks really does look to be in trouble in Epsom. I’m not sure ACT is going to be in Parliament after Saturday.
That said Viking2 is right, no pun intended. I’m party voting ACT just in case.
November 22nd, 2011 at 8:00 pm
Any National voter in Epsom with an ounce of intelligence will vote for Banks. It’s a complete no brainer!