The Electoral Commission has also published the spending of the registered third parties, who spent over the disclosure limit.

The NZEI spent $280,000 campaigning against National and national standards.under

Just behind it was the PSA who also spent $196,000 campaigning against National, including texting people in the final week of the election to vote to support strong unions.

The big money was also with the Campaign for MMP (despite the hysterical claims about business funding the Vote for Change campaign. The Campaign for MMP spent $157,000 while Vote for Change spent a mere $80,000. There was also referendum spending pro MMP by some of the political parties and unions, but under the disclosure limit.

As with previous elections the spending by unions is a magnitude greater than that by business groups.

Tags: 2011 election, MMP, unions

I’ve done an analysis of split voting from the official data in the E9. Will do a few posts on this.

The table below lists in order what percentage of people who gave National their party vote, gave their electorate vote to the Labour candidate. To some degree this measures the cross-party appeal of a candidate.

% of Nat PV voting Lab EV
Manukau East	27.3%
Christchurch East	23.7%
Waimakariri	21.1%
Mt Albert	19.6%
Rongotai	17.0%
Mt Roskill	16.5%
West Coast Tasman	16.0%
Rimutaka	14.8%
Port Hills	14.4%
Te Atatu	13.6%
Palmerston North	13.4%
Hutt South	13.1%
Wellington Central	12.7%
New Lynn	11.2%
Mangere	11.0%
Dunedin South	9.9%
Wigram	9.4%
New Plymouth	8.7%
Christchurch Central	8.1%
Rangitata	7.1%
Manurewa	6.6%
Mana	6.6%
Napier	6.4%
Auckland Central	5.5%
Ohariu	5.4%
Whanganui	5.3%
Dunedin North	5.1%
Rotorua	4.7%
East Coast	4.1%
Hamilton West	3.4%
Otaki	3.4%
Invercargill	3.1%
Hamilton East	3.0%
Wairarapa	3.0%
Waitakere	2.9%
Rangitikei	2.8%
Nelson	2.8%
Maungakiekie	2.6%
Northcote	2.4%
Pakuranga	2.3%
Kaikoura	2.3%
Botany	2.0%
Tukituki	1.9%
North Shore	1.9%
Ilam	1.8%
East Coast Bays	1.4%
Waitaki	1.3%
Bay of Plenty	1.1%
Whangarei	1.1%
Hunua	1.0%
Papakura	0.9%
Northland	0.9%
Coromandel	0.8%
Epsom	0.8%
Waikato	0.8%
Rodney	0.7%
Tamaki	0.7%
Clutha Southland	0.6%
Taranaki-King Country	0.5%
Selwyn	0.5%
Taupo	0.5%
Tauranga	0.4%
Helensville	0.3%

The Labour candidates who did best at attracting support from National voters were Ross Robertson in Manukau East, Lianne Dalziel in Christchurch East and Clayton Cosgrove in Waimakariri. They all got over 20% of National voters to vote for them.

Damien O’Connor shows how he won West Coast-Tasman, with 16% of National voters having voted for him.

Of the seats won by Labour, Dunedin North had the least number of National party voters vote for the Labour candidate – at 5.1%.

The seat where the Labour candidate got the fewest National voters was not surprisingly Helensville where Jeremy Greendrook-Held got only 0.3% of National voters voting for him. Not far behind was Tauranga where Deborah Mahuta-Coyle got only 0.4% of National voters to vote for her.

In total there were 13 seats where Labour candidates failed to attract even 1 in 100 National voters.

Tomorrow I’ll blog how the National candidates did picking up votes from Labour voters, and then how candidates from both parties did picking up votes from Green voters.

 

Tags: 2011 election, split voting

“Campaign 2011″ starts on Sunday at 8.30 pm on Sky News.

Barry Soper moderates a minor party leader’s debate with:

• ACT Leader Don Brash
• United Future Leader Peter Dunne
• Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia
• Mana Party Leader Hone Harawira
• Green co-leader Russel Norman

The panel asking questions is Chris Trotter, myself and television reporter Ngahuia Wade.

Tags: 2011 election, Sky TV

Claire Trevett at the Herald reports:

The Labour Party has broken from tradition by deciding not to have an official campaign launch this year.

It will instead mark the start of its campaign in a low-key way – with a policy announcement on savings to media tomorrow in its own caucus room.

The decision not to have a launch event is unusual – the events are considered to provide valuable media and television coverage of a leader speaking to an audience of supporters in the lead up to the election.

This is almost unheard of. A campaign launch generally gets you a couple of minutes on the TV news that night promoting your message, and guaranteed coverage in all the dailies the next day.

For Labour not to do a campaign launch, suggests things are dire.

I suspect they were worried so few supporters would turn up, that it would draw unfavourable comparisons to National’s campaign launch, or even Labour’s 2008 campaign launch.

Or they are broke and can’t afford one, as the parliamentary funding tap has been turned off for them.

A third possibility is they thought two minutes of Phil Goff in prime time would actually lose them votes. But I doubt that is the reason, as they have him taking part in the debates.

Can people think of any other reason that Labour are not having a campaign launch? Apart from the official spin line that they are concentrating on policy!

Tags: 2011 election, Labour

In my Herald column I note the final sitting day of the 49th Parliament and look forward to the elections for the 50th Parliament, in 50 days time. I make some early predictions as to which parties will and will not be back.

Tags: 2011 election, David Farrar on Politics, NZ Herald

Over at Stuff in my By the numbers blog, I look at some of the questions on the election and rugby, including the fascinating fact that 30% of New Zealanders said that the outcome of the Rugby World Cup matters to them more than the outcome of the general election. Amongst under 25s this rises to 55%!

Tags: 2011 election, By the numbers, Polls, Rugby World Cup, Stuff

List No	Name	Effective List	2008 List	Change	PV Needed
1	John Key	Electorate	1	+0
2	Bill English	Electorate	2	+0
3	Lockwood Smith	1	12	+9	33.2%
4	Gerry Brownlee	Electorate	3	-1
5	Tony Ryall	Electorate	6	+1
6	Nick Smith	Electorate	5	-1
7	Judith Collins	Electorate	7	+0
8	Anne Tolley	Electorate	10	+2
9	Chris Finlayson	2	14	+5	34.0%
10	David Carter	3	9	-1	34.8%
11	Murray McCully	Electorate	11	+0
12	Tim Groser	4	15	+3	35.6%
13	Steven Joyce	5	16	+3	36.4%
14	Paula Bennett	Electorate	41	+27
15	Phil Heatley	Electorate	22	+7
16	Jonathan Coleman	Electorate	29	+13
17	Kate Wilkinson	6	30	+13	37.2%
18	Hekia Parata	7	36	+18	38.0%
19	Maurice Williamson	Electorate	8	-11
20	Nathan Guy	Electorate	18	-2
21	Craig Foss	Electorate	33	+12
22	Chris Tremain	Electorate	31	+9
23	Jo Goodhew	Electorate	39	+16
24	Lindsay Tisch	Electorate	19	-5
25	Eric Roy	Electorate	28	+3
26	Paul Hutchison	Electorate	23	-3
27	Shane Ardern	Electorate	24	-3
28	Amy Adams	Electorate	52	+24
29	Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga	Electorate	35	+6
30	Simon Bridges	Electorate	51	+21
31	Michael Woodhouse	8	49	+18	38.8%
32	Chester Borrows	Electorate	32	+0
33	Nikki Kaye	Electorate	57	+24
34	Melissa Lee	9	37	+3	39.6%
35	Kanwaljit Bakshi	10	38	+3	40.4%
36	Jian Yang	11			41.2%
37	Alfred Ngaro	12			42.0%
38	Katrina Shanks	13	46	+8	42.8%
39	Paul Goldsmith	14			43.6%
40	Tau Henare	15	26	-14	44.4%
41	Jacqui Dean	Electorate	40	-1
42	Nicky Wagner	16	43	+1	45.2%
43	Chris Auchinvole	Electorate	42	-1
44	Louise Upston	Electorate	53	+9
45	Jonathan Young	Electorate	66	+21
46	Jackie Blue	17	45	-1	46.0%
47	Todd McClay	Electorate	54	+7
48	Allan Peachey	Electorate	34	-14
49	David Bennett	Electorate	44	-5
50	Tim Macindoe	Electorate	55	+5
51	Cam Calder	18	58	+7	46.8%
52	John Hayes	Electorate	50	-2
53	Colin King	Electorate	47	-6
54	Aaron Gilmore	19	56	+2	47.6%
55	Jami-Lee Ross	Electorate
56	Paul Quinn	20	48	-8	48.4%
57	Paul Foster-Bell	21			49.2%
58	Maggie Barry	Electorate
59	Ian McKelvie	Electorate
60	Mark Mitchell	Electorate
61	Mike Sabin	Electorate
62	Scott Simpson	Electorate
63	Claudette Hauiti	22			50.0%
64	Jo Hayes	23			50.8%
65	Leonie Hapeta	24			51.6%
66	Sam Collins	25			52.4%
67	Jonathan Fletcher	26			53.2%
68	Heather Tanner	27			54.0%
69	Denise Krum	28			54.8%
70	Carolyn O’Fallon	29			55.6%
71	Viv Gurrey	30	70	-1	56.4%
72	Karen Rolleston	31			57.2%
73	Brett Hudson	32			58.0%
74	Linda Cooper	33			58.8%
75	Karl Varley	34			59.6%

National’s 2011 party list is above. The first column is their list ranking. The third column is what I call the effective list, which takes into account which candidates are likely to win their electorate seats. The assumption is that National will hold all 41 existing seats. In reality of course it is possible it may win some additional seats, or lose a seat. In the absence of public polling data, I go with the status quo.

The fourth column is their rank in 2008, and the fifth column is the change from 2008. These are interesting but you can read too much into them. For example Maurice Williamson has dropped 11, but that is simply because the Ministers are ranked in ministerial order, while in 2008 they were not.

The sixth column is my calculation as to what party vote National needs for that candidate to be elected on the list. It assumes a 4% wasted vote, and is approximate only.

So who are the big moves. The three biggest promotions are:

1. Paula Bennett +27
2. Amy Adams+24
3. Nikki Kaye +24

A big vote of confidence in all three.

The two board only nominees (on top of Joyce and Lockwood) are Alfred Ngaro and Dr Jian Yang. Alfred stood for the Auckland Council last year, chairs the Pacific Health Committee of the Auckland District Health Board and in 2009 was awarded a Sir Peter Blake Emerging Leader Award.

Dr Yang is the associate Dean of the Faculty of Arts, and director of the China Studies Centre for the New Zealand Asia Institute at Auckland University. He is also chair of the Auckland Branch of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs.

If National wins 48% of the party vote, all current List MPs would be returned to Parliament. If they got 50%, then they would also get Paul Foster-Bell and Claudette Hauiti. At 53% every electorate candidate would get into Parliament – either via their seat or the list.

In terms of caucus diversity, and assuming a 48% party vote, National would have 15 female MPs out of 60, or 25%. A lot better than the old days when you could count the number on one hand, but not as high as it could be. The percentage women would increase to 28% if National gets 52%.

However several women have moved up the list significantly – Paula, Amy and Nikki have all had huge promotions as has Junior Whip Jo Goodhew (and all on merit in my opinion).

In terms of ethnicity, at 48% National would have seven MPs of Maori decent which would be 12% of Caucus. This is equal to the adult Maori population, which is 12% of the country. There would also be two Pacific MPs and three Asian MPs.

In terms of age distribution, 49% of the caucus would be in their 40s or younger and 51% in their 50s or 60s.

The list does not bring in much new blood. There is new blood coming in on the electorate side also, but also not a lot. This is not unusual for the first term in Government. Not many retire after one term. National’s real challenge will be in 2014. To enhance their chance of winning a third term (if they get a second term), they will need to have a significant amount of rejuvenation in both caucus and cabinet.

Tags: 2011 election, list ranking, National

I’ve updated the candidates list, which is a permanent page on this blog.

The page has the main candidates for each electorate. It now also has a spreadsheet which lists the electorate candidates for the smaller parties, and the party lists for those parties that have announced them. This will be updated approximately weekly.

Labour have found a couple more victims for seats, but still have a few unfilled. At this stage I have no known Labour candidates for Hunua, Ikaroa-Rawhiti, Tamaki and Tauranga.

UPDATE: Labour this morning announced that their Tauranga candidate is Deborah Mahuta-Coyle. I guess they were incapable of finding anyone with an actual connection to Tauranga to stand. Deborah works in the Goffice as a press secretary and the closest they can do in linking her to Tauranga is saying:

Although not originally from Tauranga, Deborah grew up further along State Highway 1 in the small town of Huntly

Hilarious. Almost as funny as this:

“Deborah is dynamic, skilled, hardworking candidate- who will do her best to represent Labour in the Tauranga electorate and if given the chance, will strongly represent Tauranga as their MP after the general election”, Moira Coatsworth said.

Deborah is one of Labour’s better candidates, but to suggest she can win Tauranga is lunacy.

UPDATE2:

Whale points out that Tauranga is of course nowhere near SH1.

Tags: 2011 election, candidates

NZPA report:

Prime Minister John Key and Labour leader Phil Goff won’t be sharing the stage with smaller party leaders in the lead up to this year’s general election.

In 2008 then Prime Minister Helen Clark and Mr Key refused to participate in debates alongside minor party leaders, despite doing so in previous years.

And that was, in my opinion, undoubtedly the right decision. Having separate one on one debates between the two people vying to be Prime Minister worked really well. Having only the two participants meant they actually had time to explain themselves, and respond to assertion each other made. Plus there was time for several topics. The one on one debates were high quality and useful activities.

The all comers debates are, at best, a circus. If you have eight participants then it means in a commercial hour, each gets five minutes at most. So responses tend to be 30 second soundbites.

And look at who will be lining up for the all comers debate – Hone, Winston, Don, Peter, Metiria/Russell and Tariana/Pita. I think it is safe to say it will be more heat than light. And that is putting it kindly.

Tags: 2011 election, debates

iPredict launches www.electionresults.co.nz

Four months before November’s election, political journalists, activists and junkies now have 24/7 access to New Zealand’s most accurate forecast of the 2011 election result, following today’s launch by New Zealand’s online predictions market, iPredict, of www.electionresults.co.nz

The new site provides constantly updating forecasts of every aspect of the New Zealand 2011 election, including the party vote share, every electorate contest and a graphical projection of the shape of the 2011-14 New Zealand Parliament.

Daily commentary on the main market movers will be provided by www.electionresults.co.nz editor Ian Llewellyn, a former press gallery political reporter for The Independent business weekly and the New Zealand Press Association (NZPA), and a former press secretary in the 1990s to Finance Minister Bill English and former Health Minister Simon Upton after spending eight months on the picket line during widespread industrial unrest in Thatcher’s Britain in 1989.

www.electionresults.co.nz is powered by the iPredict market, New Zealand’s most accurate forecaster of political and economic events, and sponsored by Auckland corporate and public affairs consultancy Exceltium and online news-service www.scoop.co.nz

The Chief Executive of iPredict, Matt Burgess, said www.electionresults.co.nz would bring to life the comprehensive and detailed information on New Zealand
politics available at www.ipredict.co.nz and would help bring new traders to the market.

“In Ian Llewellyn, we have also found someone with a very broad range of political and journalistic experience, in New Zealand and the United Kingdom, to bring to life what our market is telling us about the future,” Mr Burgess said.

The Managing Director of www.scoop.co.nz, Alastair Thompson, said online predictions markets were uniquely suited to provide data to other 24/7 news organisations, such as www.scoop.co.nz

“Polls are static and out of date the moment they are completed and while they might be useful to fill the gaps in daily newspapers and 6pm news bulletins, the online environment can provide so much richer and more immediate information,” Mr Thompson said.  “At Scoop, we are delighted to be partnering with Exceltium and iPredict to bring this information to life and complement our own 24/7 election coverage.”

The Managing Director of Exceltium, Matthew Hooton, said his company was committed to assisting iPredict in its growth.

“Across the world, predictions markets such as iPredict in New Zealand or inTrade in the United States are showing they are far more accurate, timely and relevant than traditional political polling and we have been pleased to work with iPredict over the last year to develop its offering,” Mr Hooton said.  “We’ve funded www.electionresults.co.nz because the proven predictive power of iPredict will continue to become more important in New Zealand politics and we want to be associated with its growth and success in the years ahead.”

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington.  Journalists are welcome to use, with attribution, data and reports from www.electionresults.co.nz in their
own reporting of the New Zealand election.

Tags: 2011 election, iPredict

Adam Bennett at NZ Herald reports:

National and Act are working on a deal under which Act would not stand candidates in marginal seats, including New Plymouth and Waimakariri, to increase National’s chances of winning them.

This is sensible and not unusual. Off memory most elections there have been some seats where ACT doesn’t stand a candidate to avoid splitting the centre-right electorate vote. One of the nice things about MMP is that you can still contest the party vote, without needing to stand in an electorate.

Act’s new candidate in Epsom – John Banks – said while he was not privy to such discussions, “Waimakariri would have been held by a National Party member of Parliament today if it wasn’t for the Act Party candidate last election”.

“I don’t make those decisions. I’m not on the campaign committee and I’m not on the Act board so I can’t speak with any authority but would it make sense, for instance, to lose the seat of New Plymouth to Andrew Little, a future leader of the Labour party, likely to be the leader of the Labour Party post the election, to lose that seat held by Jonathan Young because we put up an Act candidate?”

Mr Banks indicated Act would consider a more general policy of not standing in marginal seats. “I would not want to dislodge any high-quality National Party MPs from their marginal seats by way of putting up an Act candidate.”

Very sensible stuff from Banskie.

Talking of electorates a source within Labour informs me that nominations for Epsom have not closed yet, but will next week. If someone stands against Parker it will go to a selection meeting. I suspect Epsom Labour Party has few members and few union affiliates in the seat, so my guess is the Head Office wishes would prevail easily. Of course yet to have it confirmed Parker is seeking Epsom.

Tags: 2011 election, ACT, National