The table below lists in order what percentage of people who gave the Greens their party vote, also gave their electorate vote to the Green candidate.

This isn’t split voting, but it is still interesting to look at. Generally a Green candidate has no chance of winning the seat, so a high level of votes for a Green candidate from their own supporters tends to indicate their high personal standing with their own supporters. It also tends to happen more in seats where they are not marginal.

Catherine Delahunty in Coromandel got a very high 72% of Green voters also giving her their electorate vote. Next was Kennedy Graham in Ilam with 58%. Pauline Evans in Northland also did well with 56%.

The six seats where the Green candidate got under 23% of Green party voters voting for them were Palm North, New Plymouth, Ohariu, Auckland Central, Chch East and Waimakariri – all bar one reasonably marginal seats.

The table below lists in order what percentage of people who gave the Greens their party vote, gave their electorate vote to the Labour candidate.

This sort of split voting is somewhat different to Labour and Green voters voting for a National candidate or vice-versa. This is more left-wing voters splitting their vote between two parties of the left. It is more a measure of how tactical Green voters were.

There were 15 seats where over 60% of Green voters voted for the Labour candidate. This included the marginal and potentially marginal seats of Palmerston North, West Coast-Tasman, Rimutaka, Waimakariri, Acukaldn Central, Hamilton West, Wellington Central and New Plymouth.

In 28 seats over 50% of Green voters voted for the Labour candidate.

At the other end of the table, in 11 seats the Labour candidate got less than 25% of Green voters electorate votes.

The table below lists in order what percentage of people who gave the Greens their party vote, gave their electorate vote to the National candidate.

It is worth noting that not all electorates are equal. Where a seat had a Green MP as a candidate, few Green voters voted for the National candidate. Also in seats where Labour were trying to win the seat, many Greens voted tactically for the Labour candidate.

Epsom at the top is again no surprise, and represents tactical voting. It is interesting that more Green voters tactically voted than Labour voters. In hindsight standing Parker in Epsom was a mistake.

In seven other seats, the National candidate got more than 25% of Green voters.

The seat where the National candidate did best with Green voters, but did not win the seat was (excepting Epsom) Manurewa with 15.4%.

The seat where the National candidate got elected but got the fewest Green votes was Coromandel with 7.8%. Green MP Catherine Delahunty stood there.

The overall bottom seat for Greens voting for the National candidate was Rongotai where Russel Norman stood.

The table below lists in order what percentage of people who gave Labour their party vote, gave their electorate vote to the National candidate. To some degree this measures the cross-party appeal of a candidate.

It is worth noting that not all electorates are equal. In seats which are safe National, it is no big thing for a Labour voter to give their electorate vote to the National MP. In seats which are marginal, and Labour was trying to win, you get fewer Labour voters splitting their votes.

Okay no surprise that Epsom tops the list, as Labour voters there were voting strategically. The surprise, if any, is that only 36% of them voted strategically.

Nick Smith in Nelson gets the most support after that from Labour voters, followed by Simon Bridges in Tauranga and Tony Ryall in the Bay of Plenty.

In 26 of 63 seats, National candidates had 5% or more of Labour voters give then the candidate vote.

The seat which got the most Labour people voting for the National candidate, that National did not win, was Mana with 3.1%.

And the seat which National did win, with the lowest level of Labour party voters splitting their vote was Christchurch Central at 2.1%.

In eight seats, the National candidate attracted less than 1% of Labour party voters. The bottom three were Mangere, Mt Roskill and New Lynn.

The split votes analysis is interesting. The number of peopel who split their vote continues to grow – almost 31% split their votes in 2011. Looking by party we see:

• 63% of ACT voters voted for the National candidate
• 40% of Conservative party voters voted for a Conservative candidate, 28% for a National candidate and 12% a Labour candidate
• 44% of Green voters voted for a Labour candidate, 34% for a Green candidate and 14% a National candidate
• 57% of Mana voters voted for a Mana candidate, 18% for a Labour candidate
• 48% of Maori Party voters voted for a Maori Party candidate, 18% for a Labour candidate
• 43% of NZ First candidate voted for a Labour candidate and 17% for a National candidate

The judicial recount of Waitakere has found a number of invalid votes for Carmel Sepuloni and the Judge has found that Paula Bennett received more valid votes, and with a majority of 9 is declared once again the MP for Waitakere. That’s a wonderful result for Paula, who so loves being the local MP out west. A big ups to her and her team.

For Carmel, she is out of Parliament entirely, and Raymond Huo is once again a Labour List MP. A bit of a blow to the rejuvenation efforts for Labour, but at least a boost to their fund-raising efforts.

Carmel might now regret her ungracious tone when she was declared winner after specials. Of course she has open to her the option of an electoral petition, but those things can cost $200,000 or so and off memory National has never lost an electoral petition, well for the last 40 years or so anyway.

Since 1996 I’ve done an analysis of the election results after each general election. They have a number of aspects to them. The 2011 analysis is embedded below for those interested. It is 46 pages long. It includes:

1. Overall results for NZ for each party and for each “bloc”.
2. The change from 2008 to 2011 for each party and bloc.
3. Results for each party and bloc by region and area.
4. The change from 2008 to 2011 for each party and bloc by region and area.
5. National’s Party Vote, Party Vote %, Electorate Vote, Electorate Vote %, Party Vote Change, Party Vote Relative Change, Electorate Vote Change, Electorate Vote Relative Change, and Electorate Vote compared to Party Vote – for each electorate from best to worst.
6. Electorate Margins (from Nat point of view) and Electorate Majorities for all electorates.
7. Labour’s Party Vote %, Electorate Vote %, Electorate Vote compared to Party Vote, Electorate Vote compared to Party Vote for Lab & Greens, Party Vote Change, Electorate Vote Change.
8. Greens’ Party Vote % and Party Vote Change
9. NZ First Party Vote % and Party Vote Change
10. Conservative Party Vote %
11. Maori Party Vote % and Party Vote Change
12. Mana Party Vote %
13. ACT Party Vote % and Party Vote Change
14. United Party Vote % and Party Vote Change
15. Right, Centre and Left Blocs Party Vote % and Party Vote Change
16. Right vs Left Vote % and Party Vote Change
17. Total Number of Voters per electorate
18. Party Placings for Party and Electorate Vote

I usually update it once the E9 is published with further statistics such as Turnout percentage for each electorate.

What most struck me in compiling the results is the huge change in party vote in Christchurch. National’s vote went up 7.3% there and Labour’s dropped a massive 10.3%. This is much larger than the +2.4% National went up nationally and the 6.5% Labour dropped nationally. It is a huge endorsement of the work done by the Government, especially Gerry Brownlee. Labour MPs spent months complaining about various issues, setting others up to complain, and even came out with a super-bribe of offering affected home owners more. The fact their vote dropped 10.3% in Christchurch should lead them to reconsider their tactics if there is a future situation like this.

Christchurch used to be called “The People’s Republic of Christchurch” but in 2011 it voted more strongly for National than Auckland did. There is a reason for that.

2011 Final Election Results

We have 51 List MPs, 44 of whom also contested an electorate. I’ve compiled a quick table of how many people actually voted for them, given the opportunity to do so, on the electorate vote.

The MPs who had the most electorate votes by party were:

1. Clayton Cosgrove, Labour  – 16,145
2. Hekia Parata, National – 14,093
3. Russel Norman, Green – 7,262
4. Brendan Horan, NZF – 4,611

The MPs who had the least electorate votes by party were:

1. Richard Prosser, NZF – 588
2. Julie Anne Genter, Greens – 1,258
3. David Parker, Labour – 3,751
4. Kanwaljit Bakshi Singh – 3,561

In total:

• 14 List MPs got over 10,000 votes
• 11 List MPs got from 5,000 to 10,000 votes
• 9 List MPs got from 2,500 to 5,000 votes
• 10 List MPs got under 2,500 votes
• 7 List MPs did not stand in an electorate

The final results have just gone live.We now have a confirmed National-led Government

There are three changes:

Party Vote

National loses one list seat to the Greens, as often happens with special votes. Commiserations to Aaron Gilmore (who only made it by around 32 votes last time) who drops out, and congratulations to new Green MP Mojo Mathers, NZ’s first deaf MP.

If National has any vacancies during the term, those in waiting on the list are Aaron Gilmore, Paul Quinn and Paul Foster-Bell. Whether any would take up a list vacancy is likely to depend on when it occurs and what they are doing at the time.

This also allows National to go ahead and announce a Ministry, and be sworn in. If they had lost two list seats on specials, then the Maori Party would hold the balance of power. But National can pass laws 61-60 with support from ACT and united Future only. This means the Maori Party has a choice between opposition or getting some gains and influence through a confidence and supply agreement. As National only wants them, not needs them, their negotiating power is somewhat reduced. However worth remembering that Labour never gave the Maori Party anything beyond being last cab off the rank, choosing in 2005 to go with NZ First and United Future in preference to Maori and Greens.

Waitakere

Carmel Sepuloni has beaten Paula Bennett by 11 votes. That is probably close enough for a judicial recount, but based on this count congratulations go to Carmel who would have been out of Parliament otherwise. Commiserations to Paula who will of course remain an MP and Minister, but will miss her beloved seat.

The bigger loser is Raymond Huo, who loses his list place, as Sepuloni makes it back. While not a huge contributor to Labour within Parliament, I understand he is a relatively large fund-raiser for Labour.

Christchurch Central

Nicky Wagner has emerged with a 45 vote majority. As Brendon Burns is not high up enough on the list, he is out of Parliament entirely. Hence he may consider a judicial recount. Note a judicial recount is relatively quick and inexpensive compared to an electoral petition which costs so much you need to have someone like Owen Glenn pay for it

If Burns had won, then Labour would have also lost Rajen Prasad. I think Labour were hoping Brendon would win.

It is no small thing that National now holds Auckland Central and Christchurch Central. Neither are swing seats. They are heartland Labour. Auckland Central has been held by Labour (and Alliance for one term) since Labour’s 1st election outing in 1919. That 89 year run ended in 2008.

Christchurch Central has been much the same. It was created in 1946 and for 65 years has only been held by Labour. That loss will hurt.

Demographics

The demographics for the 50th Parliament are now the following:

• Gender – 67% male, 33% female (this is just one fewer woman MP than in 2008 as the two new MPs are both women)
• Ethnicity – European 74%, Maori 17%, Pacific 6%, Asian 3%
• Age – 39% 50s, 31% 40s, 16% 60s, 12% 30s, 2% 20s, 1% 70s
• Area – 35% Auckland, 24% rural/town, 18% provincial city, 13% Wellington, 11% Christchurch
• Island – 75% North, 25% South

I’ve also looked at how many MPs entered in each Parliament

• 39th (1978) – 1
• 40th (1981) – 1
• 41st (1984) – 4
• 42nd (1987) – 3
• 43rd (1990) – 4
• 44th (1993) – 5
• 45th (1996) – 4
• 46th (1999) – 7
• 47th (2002) – 6
• 48th (2005) – 24
• 49th (2008) – 35
• 50th (2011) – 27

So 86 of the 121 MPs entered in 2005 or later. Note those who enter part-way through a term are included in each Parliament’s total. Only 22 of 121 MPs entered before 1999.

OTHERS

Pleased to see Nikki Kaye increase her majority to 717. That’s a huge endorsement of her work in that seat considering in 2008 she was against Judith Tizard and in 2011 against Jacinda Ardern, who is already being talked about as a future Labour deputy leader.

Also congrats to Kate Wilkinson whose win in Waimakariri against Clayton Cosgrove has been confirmed.

A reader e-mails me:

I’ve been enjoying your herald columns – noticed that you almost always attract comments from “kat” who I always imagine is a kind of desperate and slightly unhinged cat-lady type of person (probably totally inaccurate and certainly unfair of me, but her breathless, vitriolic, and wildly optimistic writing style somehow seems to lend that kind of impression….)

Anyways, I went through her 240-odd comments over the last year or so and pulled out some of her best work, so here for your enjoyment, is “Kat: Redux”….

PS – no comments since her last one on Nov 25 – funny that…

A brave man to go back and read all of Kat’s comments. She seems to sit all day on the newspaper sites waiting for a new post, so she can be first to denounce you and pronounce victory for the left.

I’ll post below his amusing summary of Kat’s utterings, but thought it could be amusing to have a wee challenge for readers. How about going to certain blog sites and extracting the most hilarious quotes – you know the ones – that insisted the Horizon poll was right, insisted Labour would win etc etc. Post them in comments below and I’ll try and blog the best of them. The more arrogant and confident the prediction, the better.

Kat (New Zealand)

Tuesday, February 1, 2011 at 1:13 PM

Goff will be PM after the election.

Equality will be the main game. The way NZ used to be before the Vandals arrived will slowly return. Roll on election day.

Kat (New Zealand)

Friday, February 4, 2011 at 11:14 AM

Lets do a bit of ‘someone else’s money gambling’ now eh Garth?

Key is dog tucker come December. Goff will be PM. Care to gamble? go on, bet against me, be like wee keyboy, or are you just full of hot air, as usual.

Kat (New Zealand)

Sunday, February 6, 2011 at 11:51 AM

Playing devils advocate Kerre?

. Key is certainly coming across as the petulant child by exhibiting his naive arrogance with regards Winston. The people will decide who is the govt. Key will be licking his wounds in Hawaii come next Christmas.

Kat (New Zealand)

Tuesday, March 22, 2011 at 12:59 PM

Money is made round to go around.

All this talk of ‘middle class’ getting something they shouldn’t is a nonsense. National are reverting to type, they have no plan and never did other than slash and burn if the going gets tough. How bad do things really have to get before this inept govt led by its Alice in Wonderland PM is finally consigned to the political wilderness? The election in November will be about substance over style. Good riddance to the rat swallower’s and their Act thug mate.

Kat (New Zealand)

Sunday, April 3, 2011 at 9:50 AM

What will really blow all this nonsense out of the water is when Goff becomes PM in November.

History repeats itself on many occasions and I sniff a repeat of the Muldoon/Rowling rise & fall in the mid 1970′s.

Only this time MMP is going to end it for National rather than the phoney cossacks that rolled Labour at the time. The constant attempts to destabilise Goff will ultimately backfire but in a round about way. The electorate in November will be voting for anyone other than the current merchants of despair; Act, National and the Maori Party.

Roll on November.

Kat (New Zealand)

Wednesday, April 20, 2011 at 10:00 AM

Same old, same old.

Goff as opposition leader does not have to win the election, Key will lose it. Govts are voted out. Wasn’t that the most publicised story with Clark? Stay tuned Audrey and you may get a surprise lesson in political science come November.

Kat (New Zealand)

Sunday, April 17, 2011 at 12:53 PM

Roll on November.

Kat (New Zealand)

Sunday, May 22, 2011 at 11:42 AM

Key is a one trick pony, always has been, with no plan other than self adulation.

He and his bunch of tricksters will be thrown out in November. I for one don’t care that he has no clothes, the weather is warm in Hawaii.

Kat (New Zealand)

Friday, May 27, 2011 at 3:32 PM

Your a well know right wing supporter Mr Farrar so why is it not surprising your comments are so pro National to the extent you use bogus poll results as the benchmark for your opinions.
November the 26 is the real poll and get ready to be surprised, very surprised.

Kat (New Zealand)

Sunday, August 21, 2011 at 8:36 AM

Quite simply Fran we won’t have acceptable youth employment until we next get a Labour govt.

Nationals tinkering and blatant election grabbing media bites is never going to solve the problem. Its up to the people of this country and how they vote on November 26 that will determine the foreseeable future. God defend NZ will certainly be an appropriate anthem if we are delivered another term of National.

Kat (New Zealand)

Sunday, August 28, 2011 at 8:35 AM

What is bizarre is articles like this that continue to tell everyone that Goff and Labour are history.

National and in particular Key has had and continues to have the near full adoration from the media and that has an effect. Throw enough mud and some will stick.

This election is about Asset sales and the selling of NZ. Its about a poor performing economy. Its about the ever widening gap between the haves and the have-nots. Its about a govt that has no plan. Its also about substance vs style.

The media just love the celebrity style of Key and that is where Goff is given a raw deal. Goff will make an excellent PM, he is well qualified for the position from experience. Goff has a genuine heart for the people. Goff is the real deal.

Kat (New Zealand)

Friday, September 2, 2011 at 12:47 PM

More push polling Mr Farrar.

We are not stupid. The assets that National intend selling are strategic. Also your ‘insert’ mentioning Phil Goff and asset sales from the 1980′s is a cheap shot to further slur his name. Your articles are becoming more and more biased and only serve as feel good fodder for dyed in the wool National/Act supporters.

Kat (New Zealand)

Wednesday, October 26, 2011 at 10:47 AM

Woodham can’t be taken seriously when she cutely refers to the Prime Ministers lie and misleading parliament with ‘dropping the ball’ and then on one hand chastising Labour for ‘throwing money at desperate people from an ever-diminishing number of taxpayers’ yet not mentioning Nationals tax cuts which was clearly throwing money at wealthy people from an ever-diminishing number of taxpayers.

Kat (New Zealand)

Sunday, November 6, 2011 at 2:06 PM

Well its never too late Matt, better get on your bike and have all those 250,000 voters that didn’t vote for Labour in 2008 vote in 2011.

Thats what will win it for Labour, turnout!

And what about the current Horizon polling?

Kat (New Zealand)

Friday, November 18, 2011 at 12:09 PM

Mr Farrar, if your beloved ‘Brand Key’ is able to cobble together a right wing coalition following the election how long do you give that administration before it implodes?

The media, after stroking the ‘Brand Key’ dog for 3 years, will ultimately punish the dog that has now bit it. Although disastrous for the country if ‘Brand Key’ returns it would be poetic justice, in a way to see the sycophantic media devour its own pet and suffer the obvious digestive rejection.

Roll on November 26.

Kat (New Zealand)

Sunday, November 20, 2011 at 3:53 PM

‘Ultimately, National’s lead in the polls is such that this will be a minor bump in its campaign.

Not according to recent polls that you the media live. And the latest Horizon poll in particular sees Brand Key booted out.

Oh that was fun.

I blogged on Friday the final polls by the five public telephone pollsters and the final poll by Horizon. A fuller analysis will be done once we get final results, but for now I’ll do a quick analysis of how each pollster did for each party.

Note that this is not comparing apples and apples entirely. Those pollsters whose final poll was earlier in the election period naturally do not pick up what happens in the final few days. And there are other factors at work such as sample sizes. So this is not about saying who is “best” and “worst” but just a quick look at were they broadly in the right ballpark for the various parties.

This shows the actual result, and the (absolute) difference between the final poll for that pollster and the final result. Where the difference was greater than 1.5%, I have highlighted them in red.

This is just one of several ways to analyse it. One can also total up the differences for each pollster. Also you can count how many had a result within the margin of error for that poll. I’ll comment on each poll result.

Roy Morgan

They were the pollster that got NZ First closest. They had National and Greens too high and Labour too low. They did not record results for the Conservative Party at all, but otherwise were pretty good.

Fairfax Research International

National significantly too high, but Labour pretty accurate. Undershot NZ First and did not report on Conservatives. Other Minors within range.

3 News Reid Research

Like everyone had National too high (but within margin of error) and like most had the Greens too high. All other minor parties within 1.5% except NZ First whom they had at half what they got.

One News Colmar Brunton

Overall seemed to get things closest. National 2% too high and NZ First 2.6% too low, all others less than a 1% variance.

NZ Herald Digipoll

Also did well. National too high and NZ First too low, but did have them over 5%. Slightly more variance with the minor parties but none greater than 1.5%.

Horizon Poll

Of the nine significant parties, Horizon only got two of them within 1.5% – the Maori Party and United Future parties. They were the least accurate with National (14.2% out), NZ First (4.1% out), ACT (1.7% out) and Mana (1.8% out). They also had Conservatives at close to double what they actually got.

Very amusingly, Horizon are boasting how they consider their poll to have been highly accurate. It staggers me how anyone can put out a poll which had National only 5% ahead of Labour and then could claim it was “close to forecast” when the actual result was a gap of 21%.

In 2008 the day before the election I was drinking in Auckland with Matt McCarten and Chris Trotter and half the UNITE union. We had a sweepstake on the election results, and I am pleased to say I won it!

In 2011 the day before the election I was drinking in Wellington with Mark Unsworth and various associates of Saunders Unsworth. Again there was an results sweepstake, and I am pleased to say again I won it. My predictions for seats for the four main parties was:

• National 60 (got 60)
• Labour 35 (got 34)
• Greens 13 (got 13)
• NZ First 7 (got 8 )

I also earlier this year won the hotly contested (100 or so participants) Saunders Unsworth Super 15 rugby sweeps, picking the positions of the teams closest each week. That one I am very proud of, as polls don’t help much when it comes to rugby!

Combine that with a wonderful series of payouts on iPredict based on the election results (I’ll blog in detail once we have final results, but let’s just say I am a very happy chap) and overall a good year. I am thinking of starting up an astrology and fortune telling business on the side

There are 220,720 specials, which represents 11% of the total votes cast. If no special are invalids, this is what impact they could have. At present the seat allocation is:

• 120 – National (last one in – Aaron Gilmore)
• 121 – NZ First
• 122 – National
• 123 – Greens
• 134 – Labour

If National gets only 44.6% of specials, then that drops overall vote from 47.99% to 47.81% and National drops to 59 seats, with the extra seat going to NZ First or Greens most likely. This would mean National/ACT/United have 61/121 seats and have a majority.

The great irony is this scenario eventuates is that if Labour had now won Te Tai Tonga, then there would be no partial asset sales. If Rahui Katene had held that seat for the Maori Party, then Parliament would be 122 MPs (as it would be an over-hang seat) and 61/122 would not be enough. So a huge irony in that Labour winning a seat has made it easier for National to govern.

For National to lose two seats, would be very unlikely. This has not happened under MMP with a specials count. It would need this scenario.

National to get just 41% of specials, NZ First to get 8% of specials and Greens 14% of specials. This would make the total vote for each to be 47.4%, 11.0% and 6.9% respectively and they get 58, 14 and 9 seats each.

Hard to see National getting just 41% of specials. If that did eventuate, then the Maori Party would hold the balance of power, but as I said no party has ever lost two seats on specials.

My initial thoughts on the winners and losers from the election.

Winners

John Key. Key has broken his own record for the highest party vote percentage achieved under MMP. Governments normally lose support, not gain it. The Clark Government did increase support in 2002 by 2% but this was really just picking up some of the Alliance vote which had been 7% and collapsed. Key is not only re-elected Prime Minister, but has the ability to implement National’s policy programme.

Steven Joyce and Jo de Joux. This is the third campaign in a row for the campaign chairman and manager (plus three by-elections). In 2005 the National vote went up 17% which at the time was all attributed to Don Brash, but the campaign played a major part also. They ran the 2008 campaign to victory and in 2011 set a target of 48% of the party vote. The count closed last night at 47.99% so that is as precise as you can get.

Gerry Brownlee. National won the party vote in all Christchurch electorates and have won Waimakariri plus tied in Christchurch Central. This would not have happened if there was wide-spread dis-satisfaction with the Government’s response to the earthquake.

Winston Peters. Made the 5% threshold with room to spare. A remarkable comeback. Will have little influence in the next three years, but is well positioned to hold the balance of power in 2014. Biggest challenge may be to avoid scandals. Will soon be in his 70s so may need to start thinking a leadership transition, which could be Andrew Williams.

Damien O’Connor. Only Labour MP to win a seat off National.

Nikki Kaye and Paula Bennett. Both with-stood massive challenges from Labour in Auckland, who targeted all their regional resources into winning Auckland Central and Waitakere. Even massive tactical voting from Green voters wasn’t enough to knock them out.

Metiria Turei and Russel Norman. They made 10% and got four extra MPs. A very good night for them.

John Banks and Peter Dunne. Partly thanks to the rise of Winston, centre-right voters showed their intelligence and voted to help ensure a National-led Government can implement a centre-right policy programme.

Losers

Phil Goff, whose political career is over. However he should not be judged by the last three years. I’ll blog in more detail on Goff later, but he has done many things to make New Zealand a better place, and was handed a poisoned chalice by Clark.

Trevor Mallard. Labour’s campaign manager managed to knock nine of his colleagues out of caucus, and drop Labour to their lowest share of the vote since the Great Depression. The disgraceful smear pamphlets reminded many people of why they voted to evict Labour in 2008.

Don Brash, He promised up to 15% and in the end failed to even get himself elected to Parliament. A sad end to a great contribution to NZ public life.

ACT. Great for National that Banks won, but will a Banks-led ACT be viable for the future? I’m not so sure.

Colin Craig. He boasted for months on the back of a very misleading poll that he would win Rodney and he got thrashed. He spent a huge amount of the party vote and got nowhere near the 5% threshold. May have had a future if NZ First had not made it back (as policies in many areas similar) but hard to see where he can gain extra support from now.

Horizon Polls, the Sunday Star-Times and Radio Live. I will post in detail on this, but the media who kept running that poll as news worthy should be humiliated. Almost all year they have been saying National has only around 35% of decided voters, and the election results shows their methodology is fatally flawed.

You can comment away now. I’ll try and post the odd update but my primary commitment tonight is commentary on TV One. Also doing a bit for NewstalkZB and Radio Live and the OU/Herald Online coverage.

The Electoral Act states in Paragraph (g) of Section 197(1) that it an offence at any time on polling day (before 7 pm) to publish any statement advising or intended or likely to influence any elector as to the candidate or party for whom the elector should or should not vote, or any statement advising or intended or likely to influence any elector to abstain from voting.

This means I will not be posting any material after midnight that could be seen as influencing any elector as to how to vote, or not to vote. I am asking all those who comment to do the same. The law should be interpreted broadly, so do not post comments tomorrow on any candidate, MP or party, current issues or policy.

It is not my intention to disable commenting, just as I don’t expect Trade Me will close down their forums for the day. If any commenter does post a comment that could be considered in breach, I will be happy to supply their e-mail address and IP address to the Electoral Commission. I will also delete the comment and suspend the account.

If a number of people act retarded and post stuff they should not, them I may stick moderation on for comments so they do not appear automatically. I’d rather not do that, unless necessary.

I’ve already voted. I voted today for National, for Paul Foster-Bell, for change, and for STV. Whether or not you vote the same as me, make sure you vote before 7 pm tomorrow.

My Stuff column is on how the election outcome is not settled. I conclude:

So I don’t regard the outcome of the election tomorrow as settled. Certainly National is in a much better position than Labour. But under MMP, even a 23-point lead in the polls does not guarantee you government.

My message to all Stuff readers is to make sure you vote. Do not think the outcome of this election and the identity of the next government is settled. No matter who you support, make sure you have you say and cast a vote today or tomorrow.

Talking of voting, what is the weather forecast for tomorrow?

I blogged yesterday on some of the policies I liked from Labour and other minor parties. Today is the policies I think will be awful for New Zealand, if we get a Labour-led Government.

1. No path out of debt and back into surplus. If Labour were to govern alone, then the extra debt might only be $12b. But the Greens and NZ First (and the Maori and Mana parties) have literally tens of billions of dollars of spending promises. Winston makes Greece seem fiscally conservative by comparison.
2. A return to 1970 style national industry agreements. Labour’s industrial relations policy was written by the CTU. Unions would gain the power to get a Government appointed body unilaterally impose terms and conditions on every employer in an industry.
3. Repeat violent and sexual offenders will get out of jail much earlier. Labour has vowed to repeal the three strikes law. Under this law an offender whose third strike is a rape will get 20 years with no parole. Labour will repeal the law so that they get out much earlier. Many murderers have multiple previous convictions for previous violent and sexual offending. Off memory, it is around 80. If they had not been released early on parole, many of their victims would still be alive.
4. $70/week more to stay on a benefit. Labour is pledging to give parents who are beneficiaries an extra $70/week. Parents who are not beneficiaries will only get $10/week. This rewards people for not working.
5. Parents will no longer know how their kids are doing at school. Many parents have complained in the past that school reports do not tell them are their kids reading, writing and doing maths at the level expected for their age. Labour will repeal National Standards which required parents to be told how they are doing against the appropriate age standard for numeracy and literacy. This will lock in the 20% of kids who leave school with no qualifications as they were not identified early on as needing assistance. It is too late by the time they reach secondary school.
6. 10 extra costs on businesses.  Labour are proposing 10 extra costs on businesses. The cumulative impact of their policies will be destruction of jobs, leading to more people on welfare, fewer taxpayers and greater debt.
7. A directionless health system. Labour will return the health system to what we had in 2008 where the public health service had 13 health priorities, 61 objectives, 10 health targets and 47 indicators. The result was massive waiting times for elective surgery, Kiwis having to go to Australia for cancer radiation treatment, and huge delays in A&E centres.
8.  Increased power prices. Labour will retain 100% of the energy SOEs and milk them for dividends as they did in the last Government. Labour’s record was a 65% increase in power prices and raking in over $3b of dividends. They are budgeting for dividends from SOEs to massively increase to pay for their spending plans. On top of that their ETS changes will also push power prices up even further, and their ban on future non-renewable energy will be a third factor pushing prices up
9. Youth Unemployment will not drop. Since Labour abolished youth rates in 2008, youth unemployment has skyrocketed.  Labour’s policy is that should be illegal for a 16 year old with no skills, no experience and no qualification to work even part-time for less than $15 an hour. Young people will continue to face huge difficulty in gaining their first job.
10. The cost of living to go up, up, up. Don Brash may have struggled as Leader of ACT, but he was globally recognized as the world’s best Reserve Bank Governor whose job was to keep inflation down. Labour and the other left parties want to ditch the bipartisan agreement on monetary police we have had for 25 years, and remove the focus of the Reserve Bank from being just keeping inflation and prices down.  This means that prices will go up across the board. On top of that Labour’s extra spending will increase debt and also fuel inflation. Rents will also go up due to their Capital Gains Tax.

I could do more than 10 reasons not to vote for Labour, but I hope these ten will suffice as the entree at least.

Roy Morgan released a poll overnight, which some may have missed. I’ve blogged details at Curiablog.

One aspect of the poll makes me a bit doubtful of its salience – those who say the country is heading in the right direction dropped 11% from last week. That is a huge drop for one week, and suggests to me the sample may be over-represeted with “grumpies”. But we will see tomorrow.

What is interesting is the seat projections on their poll:

If all parties hold their current seats, it is:

• National 60
• Labour 29
• Green 18
• ACT 2
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 123

If Banks does not win Epsom and Dunne does not win Ohairu, it is:

• National 62
• Labour 30
• Green 18
• Maori 4
• Mana 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 123

In this scenario National just has to drop one further seat and it can not form Government, as the Maori Party holds the balance of power.

Phil Goff could almost form Government on 23.5% of the vote if he does deals with Greens, NZ First, Maori and Mana parties.

It would be a good result for Phil Goff as he keeps his job. Not so good for his colleagues though as on this poll, Labour would lose 13 MPs, but get to form Government.

This is a summary of the polls released this week. You can click on it for a larger version.

• The first five columns are the five main public polls.
• The simple average is just that – the mean of their results
• The weighted average is weighted by size and date. The full methodology is at Curiablog.Those polls which cover an earlier period are weighted slightly less. The fact this varies from the simple average shows there is some movement in the final days – National and Greens down a bit and Labour and NZ First up a bit
• The weighted seats is how many seats each party would have if that was an election result, assuming all electorate seats stay with the party that currently holds them (exception is Wigram going from Progressive to Labour)
• For comparison I have the final Horizon poll. The Horizon poll features regularly on Radio Live and on the front page of the Sunday Star-Times. Their published figures include 1.3% undecided which I have adjusted their results for, so like the other polls it is a percentage of decided voters. This allows a comparison to election results.
• I also have the seat projections based on the final Horizon poll.
• Under the weighted average there would be a centre-right Government of the only three parties pledged to support National.
• Under Horizon’s poll there would easily be a centre-left Government with the four centre-left parties having 67 seats.
• The Maori and Conservative parties have said they will go with either Labour or National so are shown in their own bloc

People should be aware of the commentary with the final NZ Herald poll:

Today’s poll also throws up a bizarre possible outcome – National winning more than 50 per cent of the party vote but still needing Act, the Maori Party or United Future to give it a majority in Parliament.

This could happen if today’s poll results were translated to votes.

The revival of New Zealand First – which National won’t deal with – could make the survival of Act crucial.

The Maori Party could be in the box seat to negotiate a confidence and supply agreement to give National a cushion of comfort if Act and United Future don’t make it.

The reason National could get a majority of party votes tomorrow but not a majority of seats in Parliament is the overhang factor.

If today’s poll figures were translated to votes, United Future, the Maori Party and Mana would get more electorate seats than their party vote entitlement.

When that happens, the size of Parliament expands beyond 120 seats, and the parties are allowed to keep the extra seats.

In this case, the “overhang” seats would take Parliament to 126 seats.

In that scenario, a Government would need 64 seats for a majority and in today’s poll, National would have 63 seats – based on the assumption that Act, Mana, United Future and the Maori Party will keep their electorate seats.

Only Act and United Future have pledged to support National.

MMP does not always deliver proportional results. As the Herald says, one could have National get over 50% of the votes, but lose power.

It is quite simple. If you want a National-led Government, party vote National. If you live in Ohariu you should vote for Peter Dunne or Winston may get to pick the Government. If you live in Epsom and want John Key to remain Prime Minister, you should vote for John Banks.

The Conservative Party have not said they will back National. Do not think a vote for them, or a vote for Craig, is a vote for John Key to remain Prime Minister.

It should not be assumed the Maori Party would back National if they hold the balance of power. They have more policy in common with Labour, and would be more likely to retain their seats in 2014 if they go with a centre-left Government.

Despite the fact the average of the polls show Phil Goff is leading Labour to their lowest ever vote share, the way MMP works means he can still emerge Prime Minister. National would never say yes to the huge spending demands that the Greens, and Winston would demand for supply and confidence.

People may also wish to think about how they will vote in the referendum, based on the scenario outlined by the NZ Herald that MMP could deliver government to Labour on 28%, even if National gets 51%. Do you want to lock MMP in as our electoral system for the next 50 years, or do you want to vote to have a referendum in 2014 pitting MMP against the most popular alternative?

Have a look at what John Key and Phil Goff are saying on the referendum, and decide for yourself.

UPDATE: The original version did not include the Roy Morgan poll released overnight. This is now included.

Andrea Vance blogs:

Goff hasn’t been seen in the city. Nor has he been in Palmerston North – the last provincial seat his party holds – in the past four weeks. You can’t help but wonder if the candidates are keen to keep him away – just as his mug is missing from the billboards.

After losing Napier, Otaki, Hamilton and the East and West Coast electorates, letting Palmerston North slip from the party’s grasp will be a serious psychological blow to the party.

Has Goff become the Marginal Labour candidates know the only way to hold their seats is to get National voters to vote for them. That’s why they are hiding Goff.

I’m not going to be voting for them, but here’s some policies I like from other parties. A later post will detail the ones I don’t like.

1. Labour saying they will raise the age of entitlement to Super from 65 to 67
2. United Future’s policy of making the pension effectively an annuity and you can either take it ealry at 60 for a lesser amount or later at 70 for a greater amount
3. The Greens policy for small business tax compliance, as recommended by the NZICA. Well worth doing.
4. Labour’s open government proposals
5. NZ First’s pledge to repeal the copyright file-sharing law (I suspect they don’t actually understand the issue in detail though as their pledge as listed would take us back to the far far worse Section 92A as passed by Labour which was guilt upon accusation. But I give them marks for good intentions)
6. ACT’s policy to cap spending at 29% of GDP
7. Labour’s support of a Capital Gains Tax. Their one is riddled with exemptions, but there is a case for one in the future.
8. ACT’s policy to remove fee caps for tertiary institutes, and interest rates for student loans
9. Labour’s policy to have a whole of government approach to open source software
10. ACT’s performance pay for teachers policy
11. Labour’s gay adoption policy
12. Green’s policy on home insulation

I’ve yet to find a Conservative Party policy I like, but to be fair I didn’t look very hard. Maori and Mana policies are not really targeted at me!

Feel free to comment with your own list of policies you like from the minor parties.

Here’s how I saw them all:

• 1st One News debate – advantage Goff
• The Press debate – win to Key
• 3 News debate – win to Goff
• 2nd One News debate – advantage Key

With the minor party debates, I’d say the best performer was Hone Harawira. Not that I agree with his policies, but he articulates the “anti-capitalist” view better than any of the other leaders on the left.

Policies have not had a huge amount of coverage during the campaign, so here’s my list of good policies from National. I’ll do separate posts on the good and bad policies of Labour later today or tomorrow.

1. After having an unprecedented no extra spending budget in an election year, will maintain fiscal discipline to get NZ back into surplus by 2014/15 – four years earlier than projected in the 2008 PREFU under Labour.
2. Welfare reform. 52% of those on the DPB went onto it as teenagers and have stayed there ever since. Work testing will stop the DPB being an income source for life
3. Health. Tony Ryall has done such a great job in health that it hasn’t even featured in any of the debates. Elective surgery waiting lists to be reduced from six months to four months
4. Education. $1b to double the capital budget for schools, and retention of national standards so parents know in plain English how their kids are doing, but as importantly so the Government can identify the schools that are less effective and deliver more resource to them.
5. Science. As massive increase in investment in Science, including transforming IRL into an Advanced Technology Institute.
6. RMA Reform. A six month deadline for consenting medium sized developments
7. Ultra-fast Broadband. National will continue rolling this out without delay. 100 MB/s will be available to 75% of NZ.
8. Law & Order. Tighter bail laws and increased penalties for breaches of protection orders
9. Industrial Relations. New employees will no longer be initially forced to join a union if there is a collective, and can decide for themselves on day one whether to join a union or not.
10. Youth Unemployment. National’s Starter Wage will mean not so many young people are priced out of the labour market.

I’ve done a little table which may help people who want a Key-led Government or a Goff-led Government to decide how to vote, or more specifically how to make sure your vote is not wasted.

There are two ways a vote can be “wasted”. By this I don’t mean it isn’t counted, but that it doesn’t help a party gain extra seats in Parliament.Ineffective might be a better name for it.

The first way is if a party does not make the threshold of 5% or one electorate seat. People may wish to still vote for these parties because of a strong belief in their policies, but other people might want to make sure their vote helps decide who will be Prime Minister – Key or Goff.

The other way a party vote can be ineffective is if you vote for a party that gains no list mps on top of their electorate seats. For example the Maori Party won five electorate seats last election, and their party vote was just 2.4% and they needed 4.6% of the vote to gain a list MP on top of their electorate MPs. So all those party votes didn’t help the Maori Party gain extra MPs.

So what does this mean. Here’s what it means if you want John Key to remain Prime Minister:

• Only a vote for National is guaranteed to help Key remain Prime Minister
• A vote for United Future or ACT will only help Key remain PM if they win an electorate seat and their party vote is at least 1.2%.
• A vote for any other party is unlikely to help Key remain Prime Minister

If you want Phil Goff to become Prime Minister:

• A vote for Labour is guaranteed to help Goff become Prime Minister
• A vote for the Greens is exceptionally likely to help Goff become Prime Minister
• A vote for the Mana Party helps Phil Goff become PM if Harawira retains Te Tai Tokerau and they get at least 1.2% party vote
• A vote for NZ First helps Phil Goff become PM, or will lead to a new election if they refuse confidence and supply to both parties

If you want your party to decide after the election between Key and Goff, there is not much to choose from

• A vote for the Maori Party will only help them gain MPs if they exceed 3.6%
• A vote for the Conservative Party will only help them gain MPs if they exceed 5.0%

Now this post is not telling people how to vote. It is informing people how to make sure your vote is most effective in determining the Prime Minister and Government, if that is what matters to you. It doesn’t for some people, but it does for others.