The table below lists in order what percentage of people who gave the Greens their party vote, also gave their electorate vote to the Green candidate.

This isn’t split voting, but it is still interesting to look at. Generally a Green candidate has no chance of winning the seat, so a high level of votes for a Green candidate from their own supporters tends to indicate their high personal standing with their own supporters. It also tends to happen more in seats where they are not marginal.

 

% of Gre PV voting Gre EV
Coromandel	71.8%
Ilam	57.5%
Northland	55.7%
Taranaki-King Country	55.1%
Hunua	53.6%
Clutha Southland	52.1%
Selwyn	52.0%
Kaikoura	51.7%
Waitaki	50.3%
East Coast Bays	49.6%
Helensville	48.1%
Rongotai	48.0%
Whangarei	47.3%
Tamaki	46.9%
Dunedin North	46.7%
Rodney	45.7%
Waikato	45.4%
Invercargill	43.6%
Taupo	42.2%
Wairarapa	42.1%
Papakura	41.9%
Tauranga	41.8%
Hutt South	41.7%
Mangere	40.2%
North Shore	39.3%
East Coast	39.0%
Tukituki	38.4%
Dunedin South	36.7%
Rangitikei	36.4%
Nelson	35.2%
Wigram	31.4%
Rangitata	31.3%
Te Atatu	31.0%
Mana	30.9%
New Lynn	30.5%
Maungakiekie	30.1%
Northcote	29.9%
Waitakere	29.6%
Mt Roskill	29.5%
Wellington Central	28.9%
Port Hills	28.9%
Christchurch Central	28.5%
Otaki	28.4%
Whanganui	27.5%
West Coast Tasman	26.8%
Rimutaka	26.1%
Mt Albert	26.0%
Epsom	24.7%
Hamilton East	23.9%
Napier	23.6%
Waimakariri	22.8%
Christchurch East	22.4%
Auckland Central	21.6%
Ohariu	21.2%
New Plymouth	21.2%
Palmerston North	20.8%

Catherine Delahunty in Coromandel got a very high 72% of Green voters also giving her their electorate vote. Next was Kennedy Graham in Ilam with 58%. Pauline Evans in Northland also did well with 56%.

The six seats where the Green candidate got under 23% of Green party voters voting for them were Palm North, New Plymouth, Ohariu, Auckland Central, Chch East and Waimakariri – all bar one reasonably marginal seats.

Tags: Election 2011, split voting

The table below lists in order what percentage of people who gave the Greens their party vote, gave their electorate vote to the Labour candidate.

This sort of split voting is somewhat different to Labour and Green voters voting for a National candidate or vice-versa. This is more left-wing voters splitting their vote between two parties of the left. It is more a measure of how tactical Green voters were.

% of Gre PV voting Lab EV	Lab
Manukau East	71.5%
Palmerston North	69.1%
Mt Albert	67.5%
Manurewa	66.8%
Christchurch East	66.4%
West Coast Tasman	64.2%
Rimutaka	64.0%
Waimakariri	63.2%
Rotorua	63.1%
Auckland Central	63.0%
Hamilton West	62.2%
Wellington Central	62.0%
Port Hills	61.7%
New Plymouth	60.5%
New Lynn	60.2%
Mt Roskill	59.1%
Te Atatu	59.1%
Ohariu	56.9%
Christchurch Central	56.3%
Napier	55.0%
Dunedin South	54.8%
Mana	54.4%
Wigram	54.3%
Hamilton East	53.3%
Whanganui	50.8%
Waitakere	50.8%
Otaki	50.6%
Hutt South	50.3%
Pakuranga	47.7%
Rongotai	46.2%
East Coast	44.9%
Rangitata	44.4%
Mangere	44.0%
Bay of Plenty	44.0%
Botany	43.9%
Northcote	43.2%
Nelson	43.1%
Dunedin North	42.7%
Wairarapa	41.4%
Maungakiekie	40.2%
Rangitikei	38.8%
Tukituki	36.3%
North Shore	36.1%
Invercargill	35.4%
Waikato	30.0%
Kaikoura	29.0%
East Coast Bays	28.0%
Rodney	27.5%
Tamaki	27.1%
Whangarei	26.9%
Papakura	26.2%
Taupo	25.7%
Waitaki	24.5%
Northland	24.5%
Taranaki-King Country	23.3%
Hunua	21.8%
Ilam	21.6%
Clutha Southland	19.3%
Selwyn	19.3%
Helensville	17.8%
Tauranga	17.6%
Coromandel	15.6%
Epsom	13.2%

There were 15 seats where over 60% of Green voters voted for the Labour candidate. This included the marginal and potentially marginal seats of Palmerston North, West Coast-Tasman, Rimutaka, Waimakariri, Acukaldn Central, Hamilton West, Wellington Central and New Plymouth.

In 28 seats over 50% of Green voters voted for the Labour candidate.

At the other end of the table, in 11 seats the Labour candidate got less than 25% of Green voters electorate votes.

Tags: Election 2011, split voting

The table below lists in order what percentage of people who gave the Greens their party vote, gave their electorate vote to the National candidate.

It is worth noting that not all electorates are equal. Where a seat had a Green MP as a candidate, few Green voters voted for the National candidate. Also in seats where Labour were trying to win the seat, many Greens voted tactically for the Labour candidate.

% of Gre PV voting Nat EV	Nat
Epsom	54.3%
Botany	34.5%
Bay of Plenty	33.5%
Pakuranga	33.0%
Tauranga	28.5%
Helensville	28.0%
Maungakiekie	25.6%
Papakura	25.3%
Taupo	24.9%
Hamilton West	24.7%
Clutha Southland	24.4%
Selwyn	23.4%
Rangitata	21.2%
Northcote	20.9%
Whangarei	20.8%
Tukituki	20.0%
Rotorua	20.0%
Waitaki	19.6%
Rangitikei	19.5%
Tamaki	19.4%
Hunua	19.3%
North Shore	19.3%
Nelson	18.6%
Whanganui	18.3%
East Coast Bays	18.2%
Waikato	18.2%
Napier	18.1%
Taranaki-King Country	18.1%
Hamilton East	17.6%
Invercargill	17.0%
Ilam	16.8%
Otaki	16.5%
Kaikoura	16.0%
Manurewa	15.4%
Northland	13.4%
Waitakere	13.0%
New Plymouth	12.7%
Mana	12.1%
Auckland Central	11.6%
Wairarapa	11.3%
Waimakariri	11.2%
Christchurch Central	11.1%
Rodney	10.9%
East Coast	8.3%
Rimutaka	8.0%
Coromandel	7.8%
Palmerston North	7.7%
Christchurch East	7.5%
Wigram	7.4%
Port Hills	7.2%
Mt Roskill	6.4%
Dunedin North	5.9%
Te Atatu	5.8%
Manukau East	5.7%
New Lynn	5.7%
Mangere	5.5%
Dunedin South	5.4%
Hutt South	5.4%
Ohariu	4.7%
West Coast Tasman	4.1%
Wellington Central	3.5%
Mt Albert	3.4%
Rongotai	2.7%

Epsom at the top is again no surprise, and represents tactical voting. It is interesting that more Green voters tactically voted than Labour voters. In hindsight standing Parker in Epsom was a mistake.

In seven other seats, the National candidate got more than 25% of Green voters.

The seat where the National candidate did best with Green voters, but did not win the seat was (excepting Epsom) Manurewa with 15.4%.

The seat where the National candidate got elected but got the fewest Green votes was Coromandel with 7.8%. Green MP Catherine Delahunty stood there.

The overall bottom seat for Greens voting for the National candidate was Rongotai where Russel Norman stood.

Tags: Election 2011, split voting

The table below lists in order what percentage of people who gave Labour their party vote, gave their electorate vote to the National candidate. To some degree this measures the cross-party appeal of a candidate.

It is worth noting that not all electorates are equal. In seats which are safe National, it is no big thing for a Labour voter to give their electorate vote to the National MP. In seats which are marginal, and Labour was trying to win, you get fewer Labour voters splitting their votes.

% of Lab PV voting Nat EV
Epsom	35.5%
Nelson	12.3%
Tauranga	11.0%
Bay of Plenty	10.8%
Selwyn	9.8%
Helensville	9.8%
Whangarei	9.5%
Clutha Southland	9.2%
Pakuranga	9.0%
Botany	8.9%
Northcote	8.5%
Hamilton East	8.1%
Waitaki	8.1%
Taupo	7.9%
Ilam	7.8%
Papakura	7.0%
Whanganui	6.6%
Taranaki-King Country	6.3%
Rangitikei	6.0%
Maungakiekie	6.0%
Hunua	6.0%
East Coast Bays	5.9%
Rangitata	5.6%
Otaki	5.6%
Northland	5.5%
Invercargill	5.3%
Tukituki	4.9%
Kaikoura	4.8%
North Shore	4.7%
Rotorua	4.7%
Waikato	4.5%
Tamaki	4.3%
Napier	4.2%
Waitakere	3.8%
Hamilton West	3.7%
Auckland Central	3.4%
Mana	3.1%
Wairarapa	3.0%
Rodney	2.6%
New Plymouth	2.5%
Waimakariri	2.4%
Coromandel	2.4%
East Coast	2.3%
Christchurch Central	2.1%
Dunedin North	2.0%
Palmerston North	1.6%
Christchurch East	1.5%
West Coast Tasman	1.4%
Port Hills	1.4%
Ohariu	1.3%
Manukau East	1.1%
Rimutaka	1.1%
Hutt South	1.1%
Wigram	1.0%
Manurewa	1.0%
Wellington Central	0.9%
Rongotai	0.8%
Mt Albert	0.8%
Te Atatu	0.8%
Dunedin South	0.8%
New Lynn	0.7%
Mt Roskill	0.7%
Mangere	0.4%

Okay no surprise that Epsom tops the list, as Labour voters there were voting strategically. The surprise, if any, is that only 36% of them voted strategically.

Nick Smith in Nelson gets the most support after that from Labour voters, followed by Simon Bridges in Tauranga and Tony Ryall in the Bay of Plenty.

In 26 of 63 seats, National candidates had 5% or more of Labour voters give then the candidate vote.

The seat which got the most Labour people voting for the National candidate, that National did not win, was Mana with 3.1%.

And the seat which National did win, with the lowest level of Labour party voters splitting their vote was Christchurch Central at 2.1%.

In eight seats, the National candidate attracted less than 1% of Labour party voters. The bottom three were Mangere, Mt Roskill and New Lynn.

Tags: Election 2011, split voting

I’ve done an analysis of split voting from the official data in the E9. Will do a few posts on this.

The table below lists in order what percentage of people who gave National their party vote, gave their electorate vote to the Labour candidate. To some degree this measures the cross-party appeal of a candidate.

% of Nat PV voting Lab EV
Manukau East	27.3%
Christchurch East	23.7%
Waimakariri	21.1%
Mt Albert	19.6%
Rongotai	17.0%
Mt Roskill	16.5%
West Coast Tasman	16.0%
Rimutaka	14.8%
Port Hills	14.4%
Te Atatu	13.6%
Palmerston North	13.4%
Hutt South	13.1%
Wellington Central	12.7%
New Lynn	11.2%
Mangere	11.0%
Dunedin South	9.9%
Wigram	9.4%
New Plymouth	8.7%
Christchurch Central	8.1%
Rangitata	7.1%
Manurewa	6.6%
Mana	6.6%
Napier	6.4%
Auckland Central	5.5%
Ohariu	5.4%
Whanganui	5.3%
Dunedin North	5.1%
Rotorua	4.7%
East Coast	4.1%
Hamilton West	3.4%
Otaki	3.4%
Invercargill	3.1%
Hamilton East	3.0%
Wairarapa	3.0%
Waitakere	2.9%
Rangitikei	2.8%
Nelson	2.8%
Maungakiekie	2.6%
Northcote	2.4%
Pakuranga	2.3%
Kaikoura	2.3%
Botany	2.0%
Tukituki	1.9%
North Shore	1.9%
Ilam	1.8%
East Coast Bays	1.4%
Waitaki	1.3%
Bay of Plenty	1.1%
Whangarei	1.1%
Hunua	1.0%
Papakura	0.9%
Northland	0.9%
Coromandel	0.8%
Epsom	0.8%
Waikato	0.8%
Rodney	0.7%
Tamaki	0.7%
Clutha Southland	0.6%
Taranaki-King Country	0.5%
Selwyn	0.5%
Taupo	0.5%
Tauranga	0.4%
Helensville	0.3%

The Labour candidates who did best at attracting support from National voters were Ross Robertson in Manukau East, Lianne Dalziel in Christchurch East and Clayton Cosgrove in Waimakariri. They all got over 20% of National voters to vote for them.

Damien O’Connor shows how he won West Coast-Tasman, with 16% of National voters having voted for him.

Of the seats won by Labour, Dunedin North had the least number of National party voters vote for the Labour candidate – at 5.1%.

The seat where the Labour candidate got the fewest National voters was not surprisingly Helensville where Jeremy Greendrook-Held got only 0.3% of National voters voting for him. Not far behind was Tauranga where Deborah Mahuta-Coyle got only 0.4% of National voters to vote for her.

In total there were 13 seats where Labour candidates failed to attract even 1 in 100 National voters.

Tomorrow I’ll blog how the National candidates did picking up votes from Labour voters, and then how candidates from both parties did picking up votes from Green voters.

 

Tags: 2011 election, split voting

The Chief Electoral Officer has published the E9, which has the official statistics from the election. You used to have to wait months for this to be published. I think it must be a record to have it out within just a week of the final results.

Apart from the detailed results per polling place, they have the vote splitting statistics. The summary tells us 70.4% did not split their votes and 29.6% did split. Of the larger parties, these were the percentage who split their votes (voted for a different electorate candidate to their party vote):

1. National 14.5%
2. Labour 22.5%
3. Maori 39.3%
4. Green 66.7%
5. United Future 75.8%
6. Progressive 77.6%
7. NZ First 81.9%
8. ACT 83.6%

National’s low level of vote splitting will help explain why they won so many more electorate seats than Labour. Now let us look at how those who split their votes, did so:

1. ACT – 72.6% voted for the National candidate, 4.9% Labour cand, 16.4% ACT cand
2. Green – 10.5% National cand, 47.2% Labour, 33.3% Green
3. Progressive – 16.8% National, 43.3% Labour, 22.4% Progressive
4. Labour – 5.0% National, 77.5% Labour, 6.1% Green
5. Maori – 6.5% National, 18.7% Labour, 60.7% Maori
6. National – 85.5% National, 3.5% Labour, 4.2% ACT
7. NZ First – 20.1% National, 43.2% Labour, 18.1% NZ First
8. United Future – 50.1% National, 12.3% Labour, 24.2% United Future

With the two largest minor parties (in Parliament) we see that 73% of ACT voters voted for the National candidate while only 47% of Green voters voted for the Labour candidate.

We also saw twice as many NZ First voters voted for a Labour candidate than a National candidate.

Also most importantly 86% of National voters supported the National candidate, while only 78% of Labour voters supported the Labour candidate. Even if you exclude the Maori seats this only increases to 79.6%.

One can also look at the split voting in each electorate. A few interesting ones:

• In Epsom, Rodney Hide got 89% of the ACT voters, 16% of the Greens, 21% of Progressives, 16% of Labour, 33% of Maori Party and 70% of National – over 15,000 National Party voters voted for Rodney.
• In Mangere 73% of Labour voters voted Sua, and 15% Field.
• In Nelson Nick Smith got 95% of the National voters, 22% of Labour voters and 19% of Green voters
• In New Plymouth Harry Duynhoven narrowly lost despite getting 94% of Labour voters, 13% of National voters, 19% of ACT voters and 80% of Green voters.
• In Ohariu Peter Dunne got 91% of United voters, 44% of National voters and 16% of Labour voters. In 2005 he got 34% of Labour voters.
• Otaki was a hard fought battle. Nathan Guy got 92% of the National vote and 4% of the Labour vote. Darren Hughes got 91% of the Labour vote and 6% of the National vote.
• In Tauranga Peters got 90% fo the NZ First voters but only 6% of the National voters and 46% of Labour voters. Sime Bridges got 88% of National voters and 11% of Labour voters plus even 5% of NZ First voters. He even got 27% of Green voters – double what the Labour cand got. Simon also got 30% of the Maori Party voters.
• In Wellington Central Stephen Franks got 84% of National voters, 77% of ACT, 4% of Labour and 6% of Greens. Robertson triumphed because on top of his 76% of Labour voters he got 57% of Green voters.  A quite large 16% of Labour voters chose Kedgley over Robertson.
• In WIgram Jim Anderton get 86% of Progressive voters, 58% of Labour voters and 21% of National voters.

It’s great fun analysing these statistics. Now if only we could get split voting stats per polling place!

Tags: Election 2008, split voting